It’s not particularly surprising to see Republican reactions to Democratic – or former President Obama’s – initiatives going awry when they’re not built on authentic concerns, but rather, it appears, because they suffer from the ol’ Not Invented Here (NIH) syndrome. Why? Republicans let their emotional urges (Democrats / Obama bad!), or worse yet their intellectual failings, drive their reactions, rather than thinking things through. We’ve seen this just recently in this report.
The mark of third-raters.
But here’s another, and potentially more severe, example, from AL Monitor:
The moderate [Iranian President] Rouhani, who came to power with the promise of restoring ties with the West and resolving the nuclear issue, is now at war on two fronts. Outside Iran, he is struggling with Trump, who not only withdrew from the JCPOA but is also preventing European and Eastern countries from trading with Tehran. Domestically, Rouhani is losing a six-year battle to hard-liners and has been seriously weakened by the dire economic situation, which is rooted in the US undermining of the JCPOA. According to some reports, Rouhani’s popularity has fallen below 10%, which is unprecedented.
The recent US sanctions directly against Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei haven’t hurt him, but have put a huge obstacle in the way of any negotiations, giving the hard-liners significant grounds for action while tying Rouhani’s hands tighter.
In reality, the US sanctions and, partly, Europe’s inability to save the JCPOA are gradually radicalizing Iran and its society. Moderates in Tehran risk being accused of betraying their country. They are being undermined and isolated, and their positions are being taken away one by one. For instance, Heshmatollah Falhatpishe, a prominent moderate and pragmatist parliament member, recently tweeted that Iran should give Instex more time. But he’s no longer taken seriously, having just last month lost his position as chairman of parliament’s foreign policy commission to a staunch JCPOA enemy.
I’ve mentioned in a number of posts that the JCPOA, aka the Iran Nuclear Deal, yes, that deal that Trump tore up for reasons he hasn’t truly explained, immensely frustrated both sets of hard-liners, those in the East and the West. I think that anything that makes the Iranian hard-liners shriek with frustrated fury and accuse the moderates of betrayal and such hyperbolic crap indicates something good is happening. Of course, this is predicated on the rational basis that moderates in power in Iran can set a positive example for the Iranian citizens, thus discrediting the hard liners who are least likely to cooperate with us; they want their nuclear weapon ice cream, and they want it Now!
Of course, it is the Islamic Republic of Iran, and it may be foolhardy of me to expect rationality from even their moderate leaders; as a mere interested spectator, it’s difficult to tell if moderate Rouhani would have continued to move Iran further and further away from an extremist position. What seems extremist to us, after all, may seem like the commonest of sense to the Iranian leaders.
This, of course, applies equally well to the Christianist leaders here in the United States. I’m an equal-opportunity suspicious nut-case, folks.
But it remains clear that when the Iranian hardliners cheer, and the Iranian citizen in the street becomes alienated against their Moderate leaders, something has gone seriously wrong with the American policy to isolate Iran, alienate the citizenry against the hard liners, stop engendering terror in the region, and make them drop their nuclear weapon plans. Instead, they have, or soon will, exceed the JCPOA limitations, the citizens scoff at the Moderates, the hardliners, who hate America the most, are poised to take control at the next elections, and at least reportedly the terror incidents continue …
Trump looks like an idiot. Again.
And while the hawks in the Trump Administration may believe an all out assault on Iran will crumble them like cheese, I don’t even need this report to suspect that it’ll turn into yet another decades-long war which further stains the reputations of both America and democracy, stains we can ill-afford in the face of the Republican incompetency since the start of the War in Afghanistan.
Once again, unintended consequences.
