There’s a certain emotional dissonance in realizing that President Trump is actually the moderate in his administration when it comes to Iran, as WaPo is basically saying:
The Trump administration has been on high alert in response to what military and intelligence officials have deemed specific and credible threats from Iran against U.S. personnel in the Middle East.
But President Trump is frustrated with some of his top advisers, who he thinks could rush the United States into a military confrontation with Iran and shatter his long-standing pledge to withdraw from costly foreign wars, according to several U.S. officials. Trump prefers a diplomatic approach to resolving tensions and wants to speak directly with Iran’s leaders. …
rump grew angry last week and over the weekend about what he sees as warlike planning that is getting ahead of his own thinking, said a senior administration official with knowledge of conversations Trump had regarding national security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
“They are getting way out ahead of themselves, and Trump is annoyed,” the official said. “There was a scramble for Bolton and Pompeo and others to get on the same page.”
With Trump’s re-election chances desperately dependent on keeping his base together, the key to this is his promises to stay out of bloodily unnecessary wars, unlike his Republican predecessor President Bush, whose reputation since leaving office has been quite tarnished by the ongoing results of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
In that, I can agree with Trump.
But in his recently hired National Security Advisor John Bolton, he has a guy who’s strongly interested in how well a full-out war with Iran would go. He’s condemned just about all diplomatic maneuvers attempted with Iran.
Nor is his lead diplomat, Secretary Mike Pompeo, a particularly well-qualified person to be in that position. A former Representative, he was a businessman in the heart of Kansas prior to his political career. I don’t think a hard driving businessman is a good fit for the position.
So President Trump discovers he has to stand in the stirrups and hold his hand-picked horses back from plunging him into the abyss of ugly, bloody war. He threw the JCPOA (Iran nuclear deal) foolishly into the trash, and now looks like a hapless would-be leader who’s been sidelined by the adults.
And now he’s operating under one more disadvantage: all of his adversaries know that, despite his selections of Bolton and Pompeo, Trump himself is reluctant to engage in any sort of actual war. It’s as if he’s playing the black pieces in chess, and has ceded his first move. Not only do his foreign adversaries, such as Iran, know this, but so do his advisors. Might we see some hyperbole from them in an effort to force a war they desire? They know that Trump also doesn’t pay attention to intelligence briefings. He’s vulnerable.
I sympathize with his inclinations, but, like any amateur who shouldn’t be in his position, he’s operating on gut instinct and, to be honest, is in danger of a major failure because of it. Even if he stays out of war, adversaries will take advantage of his incompetence and unwillingness to learn.
It will be a tough ride for the reputation of the United States until he’s replaced.
