The first special election since the midterms is coming up for a state Senate seat in Virginia, and this information is coming from a, well, I’ll call it a shakedown mailing just because I think it’s a fun phrase. It’s from the DLCC:
We’re down to the final 4 days of a crucial special election campaign for Virginia’s 33rd Senate District, and the news isn’t good:
Top Republicans have poured tens of thousands of dollars into this snap election in recent weeks, hoping to overpower Democrats and deliver a huge victory for Donald Trump in the very first special election of 2019.
Grassroots Democrats have been stepping up across the country to help our nominee, Jennifer Boysko, fight back, but we need a BIG final push to counter the GOP’s late money and make sure Democrats like Jennifer deliver a statement win to start the year off strong.
And, while the first special election is mildly interesting in its own right, I was actually more interested in the content of this letter – and how it’s trying to inspire fear in its reader. I mean, just consider that second paragraph … “Top Republicans have poured tens of thousands of dollars into this snap election in recent weeks, hoping to overpower Democrats and deliver a huge victory for Donald Trump in the very first special election of 2019.” Playing on loathing for President Trump, the fear of the Big Money that is perceived to fund the conservative causes, and the possibility of a big triumph for Trump, it’s all about the money the DLCC wants.
Not about the analysis.
I read this and wondered if this was a play for a seat held by a Republican, because – despite the emotional manipulation – it would make some sense, even this late in the game, to try to buy enough ad space to wake up previously dormant voters who might vote for the lonely, windswept, fig-leafed Democrat who has only the least of chances to win victory –
Er, sorry about that. My strain of purple prose is struggling to get out. I’ll use a hammer on it. The hammer of reason.
So, let’s talk about Virginia’s 33rd State Senate District. Is this a chance to flip for the Democrats? Ballotpedia says … no. The previous election for this seat:
How about the previous election? That one wasn’t even as close as this one. The one before that? Nope.
This is a long-time Democratic seat, although it was Republican previous to 2010 – which may have been a redistricting year. Is it in danger? I doubt it, but on the other hand, it appears the Republican is quite the moderate, if I’m to believe this article in the Loudoun Times-Mirror, a local news source. No mention of Trump on the front page of his website, which may be a strategic move to appear more moderate after watching many extreme Republicans go down to defeat. Perhaps Trump won’t be entirely pleased if May were to win, because that would signal the Republicans moving away from Trump’s extreme positions. Well, extreme when he’s not being so erratic …
But now I’m off point. My real point is that the Democrats seem to be using fear tactics in order to harvest some dollars. Whether this is really true is only known to those who authorized this campaign, and whether it’s necessary will only be known when the votes are counted. If the Democrat, Boysko, wins by a comfortable margin, then the answer is No. If Republican May wins or makes it a close run, then the answer is Yes.
But I still dislike the DLCC missive. It’s little more than an electoral scare tactic.
