In a surprising development, The New York Times is reporting that China is not sending samples of the latest influenza mutation for analysis and vaccination development:
For over a year, the Chinese government has withheld lab samples of a rapidly evolving influenza virus from the United States — specimens needed to develop vaccines and treatments, according to federal health officials.
Despite persistent requests from government officials and research institutions, China has not provided samples of the dangerous virus, a type of bird flu called H7N9. In the past, such exchanges have been mostly routine under rules established by the World Health Organization.
Now, as the United States and China spar over trade, some scientists worry that the vital exchange of medical supplies and information could slow, hampering preparedness for the next biological threat. …
“Jeopardizing U.S. access to foreign pathogens and therapies to counter them undermines our nation’s ability to protect against infections which can spread globally within days.” [said Dr. Michael Callahan]
I don’t doubt the immediate suspicion is that China will develop its own vaccine and withhold it from the rest of the world, in hopes of causing chaos if the virus turns out to be as deadly as its cousins, and far more contagious. It’s a reasonable concern.
But there are other explanations for the Chinese behavior:
- Concerns about the Trump Administration. It’s not beyond belief that someone would weaponize an influenza virus and deliberately spread it to other countries, much like the primary concern, above, but weaponization could make it much worse. I’m not as familiar with biological weapons as I might like – or maybe I am – but the public has had a taste of it in the use of anthrax spores as a weapon in 2001.
- Leverage in the tariff war. This is an implicit threat to the American homeland. But would Trump even understand it?
- Depopulation. Way out on the edge of the spectrum of possibility is that this is a deliberate depopulation effort by the Chinese against the rest of the world. The aggregate excretia of the world is beginning to have an impact world-wide, and the Chinese may have decided a radical approach to reducing world wide population is in order. We need to remember that valuing human life differs from region to region, and while we tend to freeze up when a few American lives are lost (in contrast to a century ago, where lives were spent freely during World War I), in other parts of the world the loss of life is treated differently.
The order of plausibility of the above, for me, is 2, 1, 3.
