Since Mohammed bin Salman became Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, our big ally in the Middle East has been clumsily waging war on Yemen, war that has done little more than kill civilians and swallow up their budget. Additionally, Qatar has been the victim of aggression in the form of a blockade and a reported plan to depose the country’s emir. Bruce Riedel in AL Monitor, after noting that both Trump and Obama have “colluded” in this aggression, suggests that smart money is getting out of Saudi Arabia:
Indeed, the international business community has come to a very different conclusion [than President Trump] about the country’s policies, especially in the wake of Mohammed’s shakedown of his own people last fall to pay for his expensive adventures. Hundreds were detained without charge, and then forced to turn over their assets to the government. Foreign direct investment in the kingdom dropped 80% from over $7 billion in 2016 to $1.4 billion in 2017, according to the United Nations, and down from over $12 billion when King Abdullah was still on the throne. Jordan and Oman each attracted more foreign investment last year than Saudi Arabia. The number of companies also fell significantly. Concerns about the rule of law and arbitrary detention are also encouraging capital flight.
Foreign investment is crucial to Saudi Arabia’s ambition to diversify the economy and create new cities; Vision 2030 needs robust foreign investment. It was entirely predictable that the erratic policies of the royal palace would discourage investors who value stability and predictability — open-ended wars and feuds do not encourage confidence in decision-making.
Absolute monarchies can often be viewed as a collection of decisions driven by irrational motivations – monarchical whim, absolutist religious ideology, desire for personal enrichment, and/or a drive to leave one’s mark on the world. The result is war and suffering. The incompatability of liberal democracies, even one as currently damaged as the American version, and absolute monarchies will result in the former being dragged by the latter into undesirable situations, and underlines the importance of resolving situations which force democracies into such alliances.
Absolute monarchies may be momentary friends, but only momentary. There are no long term shared principles, for the variability and goals of monarchies differ too much from those of the democracy.
