The next in a line of special elections is coming up this Tuesday in Ohio as, due to the resignation of Representative Patrick Tiberi, the OH-12 seat in the House of Representatives has become available. According to Ballotpedia, this is a safely Republican seat, as the Republicans won the seat by 36.8 points in 2016, and previous to that margins of 40.3, 27, and 14.8; previous elections are not valid for this comparison due to redistricting. It’s been Rep. Tiberi this entire time, which may skew the results if voters connect with him, but in the end, this looks like a safe Republican seat.
So why are Speaker Ryan, President Trump, and Vice President Pence actively campaigning for the Republican candidate, State Senator Troy Balderson, and why has President Trump found it necessary to endorse Balderson?
[tweet https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1020811550771294211]
Because of this Monmouth poll result:
The race to fill the open seat in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District has shifted from a Republican advantage last month to a toss-up now, according to the Monmouth University Poll. Different voter models suggest that the race could go either way. The underlying GOP-lean of this district benefits State Senator Troy Balderson. But an increase in Democratic enthusiasm and a shift in independent voter preferences have boosted the standing of Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor.
That must be a shocking poll for Republicans who considered this a safe seat. Looking at the Balderson campaign website, he’s not a invoking the Trump name at all on the front page – at least not now. If he does not win, we know where Trump will go with his defense of his failure to drag Balderson across a finish line that should have been easy for a Republican who has a long record in the State House and doesn’t even appear to be an extremist, although he does sing the “no new taxes” theme song of the Republicans. He’ll blame Balderson for not embracing the Trump agenda.
But even if O’Connor fails, but only fails by a small margin, this will be an indictment by the American people of the Republican ideology of Trump, because Balderson bears the brand name on his shoulder, without a slavish devotion to Trump. So even without the name of Trump to remind independents of an ideology which is looking increasingly like madness, the polls – including the most important one, the last one – appear to show an overwhelming advantage for the Republicans going right into the shitcan.
That has to be a big red warning sign for Republican leaders who continue to act as if they’re convinced they have a winning political message for the upcoming elections.
