The continuing saga of Brexit, the British exit from the European Union, may be taking a left turn following the resignation of Boris Johnson from Prime Minister Theresa May’s government, who is a Brexit “hard exit” advocates, as well as chief negotiator David Davis – but possibly not disaster. Former Brit Andrew Sullivan explains in New York:
So what happens when all this keeps coming closer and closer? Who knows? But with parliament deadlocked and the E.U. implacable, a simple solution could present itself as the only way out for a Tory Party desperate to keep Labour out of power: The transition period could be extended, and a second referendum called. On the ballot this time would be the two actual, non-fantasy options: a brutal exit, or remaining in the E.U.
This wouldn’t be a referendum to undo the first one; it would be to clarify it, after the actual, tangible, non-fantasy options are available. People voted for Brexit with no one actually knowing what kind of Brexit, or any clear idea of what it would entail, and many voters were confused about the intricacies. Two years later, and the confusion is even deeper, and the divide greater.
I don’t know what the result of such a second referendum would be, but I know that it is the only way not to permanently divide and embitter the country, and to end the debate for good. I suspect that a doomsday Brexit would concentrate the mind; and that sticking with the status quo, after the last two chaotic years, might seem a little more enticing that it once did. In that scenario, Brexit may — just may — be reversed by the people. That’s my hope anyway. Some small part of me wonders whether it isn’t Theresa May’s hope as well.
And Andrew believes this may have been a setup by Prime Minister May. Add in President Trump’s criticism of Prime Minister May (swiftly denied to be criticism, or to exist, or maybe he claims the tapes are fake, who knows what we should make of President Irrelevancy), which will inflame British opinion, no matter how hard Rupert Murdoch works to calm the waters, and we may see the abortion of Brexit, and, if my and other speculations on the matter are correct, the dilution and spoilage of the Russian strategy to alienate the various national actors allied in opposition to Putin’s empire-minded ways.
Or at least one prong of the plan. President Trump remains resolute in denying the activities of the Russians in the 2016 Presidential elections, unless, of course, he plans to accuse the Russians of interfering to aid President Clinton. Excuse me, candidate Clinton. To be honest, my implications are mere speculation; the evidence that he has been compromised is circumstancial and not dispositive.
But for us pattern-seeking monkey-types, the arrows definitely point in that direction, and it’s worth using it as a scientific hypothesis. What is the real point of a hypothesis? To predict. If we stipulate for the moment the President being compromised, then we can predict their will continue to be attempts by the President to dismantle important alliances which have blocked and frustrated Russia since before it’s rebirth following the peaceful defeat and dismantlement of its predecessor, the USSR.
And Prime Minister May may be cementing a place in history for herself if she finds a way to avoid the entire Brexit debacle.
