Kevin Drum is riding his favorite hobby horse, but this time in the context of Mexico. It’s a fetching Iron Horse …
Mexico didn’t start to phase out leaded gasoline until 1990, and average blood lead levels were at or above 15 μg/dl until then, especially in rural areas. In America, the generation of children born during the era of BLLs that high (1970-1980) was the same generation that later produced the “superpredator” hysteria of the 90s—except that it’s a little unfair to call it hysteria, since many of these kids really were unusually vicious and dangerous.
Mexico, by contrast, had a generation of kids born as late as 2000 with BLLs this high. The fact that violence is endemic 18 years later is no big surprise. In another decade, things should be a lot better.
Fascinating. So when, in fifteen or thirty years, we try to explain the drop in violence in Mexico, will it be because of the legalization of marijuana and other currently illegal drugs by the big neighbor to the north? The efforts of Mexican Federal troops? These are highly tangible efforts by law enforcement to control law-breakers, so it’s the very tempting choice. Abatement of lead in the environment, on the other hand, is a public health effort which, simply because it’s aimed at brain damage rather than violence, is the less obvious answer.
And the others make for such great arguments. Just think of former NYC Mayor Guiliani still trying to take credit for cleaning up New York using the “broken window” approach. His squalling can be positively vociferous. And I can understand why he does that, because lead abatement is not the obvious solution for the problem he was trying to solve.
If the lead poisoning theory of societal violence does prove out, it’s a glaring example of the dangers of unconstrained pollution. And it makes one wonder about our current collection of leaders and their irrational choices. Did that doc of Trump’s perform a blood level test on him?
