On 38 North, Joseph DeThomas agrees with my own suspicions concerning Kim Jong Un and his adversaries:
Kim Jong Un has to be given a great deal of credit for tactical diplomatic acumen. He began 2018 totally isolated and under severe economic and military pressure. He had no reason to believe any of the main participants would relent in sanctions pressure and he had reason to fear that they would lament but do nothing to halt any ill-conceived US military action. In five short months, he has totally reversed the diplomatic momentum of the situation. While he is still under sanctions pressure, he has eliminated any hope the US could resort to military action and maintain its alliance with the ROK. He has likely shifted China’s position back to its more traditional semi-supportive approach to the DPRK, especially as long as Kim refrains from further provocations, and he has isolated President Trump should the President wish to return to a policy of maximum pressure.
Kim did this through very slick public diplomacy in which he shifted his image from that of a comic book villain to that of a normal and quite approachable statesman. At the same time, he made himself the center of the diplomatic geometry of the Korean Peninsula. He began the year as the target of diplomacy. He has emerged this spring as its prime mover by dealing with each of his opponents bilaterally—offering them what they wanted in isolation from the others and by leaving Donald Trump until last, with Japanese Prime Minister Abe still on the sidelines, ignored by all actors.
The Japanese will carry the blight of World War II for another couple of generations, I suspect – because their Asian neighbors find it too profitable to let it drop. And it’s sensible to be wary of any entity that displayed such barbaric violence towards them.
But the real star of the show is Kim, I think. He remains the scion of a vicious family monarchy, no matter how many skills he displays in the diplomatic arena or how much good press he may garner, and that’s another key element of the drama playing out on the southern border of China. Is he building a mask? You bet. He may end up denuclearizing the peninsula, but it’ll be on his terms, not ours, or no dice. His biggest task may be decoding Trump’s utterances, which tends to descend into gibberish when he talks about anything beyond the American borders.
So I don’t expect any instant successes. The North Koreans have never been known for quick movement at the diplomatic table. And if Trump comes back from the summit claiming victory, well, don’t be naive.
