Way back on this thread, I suggested that Obama waged an undeclared war on Russia, following their forcible annexation of the Crimea, by forcing down the price of oil through various means. Mark Sumner on The Daily Kos now suggests that Trump’s bizarre rejection of the Iran nuclear deal may, in fact, be linked to Russia’s financial problems resulting from Obama’s move against Putin:
A report on Russian state media shows that Donald Trump has already delivered not just a gift to Vladimir Putin, but possibly the gift that Putin has wanted all along. In a conversation on RT, the two hosts note that to implement all the domestic programs Putin has promised for Russia, the cost will be 8 trillion rubles ($127 billion). But, where, the host questions, is Russia to get such a huge amount when the government has long been strapped for cash?
Female host says: “Looks like we found it. Trump is withdrawing US from the Iran nuclear deal. Oil prices should go up, which is good for us.”
Crude oil futures have leapt from $26 at the time of Trump’s election to $77 today. Back in January, Trump actually certified that Iran was in compliance with the nuclear agreement. However, Trump threatened to end the agreement if it wasn’t expanded to include items unrelated to Iran’s nuclear program and “strengthened” in unspecified ways.
Trump increased his warnings that he would end the deal in February, and by Marchwas engaged in talks with European allies—talks at which allies consistently urged Trump to remain in the deal and Trump consistently announced his intention to walk away. As the talks wore on, and Trump’s intransigence became clear, fears of a destabilized Middle East began to shore up oil prices.
Russian oil production hovers around 10 million barrels a day. That means the increase that has already happened in oil prices is providing Putin with an extra $520 million a day. If the prices were to continue at the level generated by Trump’s actions for a year, Putin could meet all his promises to Russia—and have $60 billion to spare—just out of the net increase.
Of course, Putin will have expenses, but he’ll still be left with a pretty penny at the end of the day, if all this is true. And I have the appalling feeling that it is true. Sumner also reiterates a point I made quite a while ago:
Breaking the agreement didn’t really cost Trump much. Just the faith of every other nation on the planet, who now see that the US is willing to violate a treaty over the objections of allies and the evidence that the other party is living up to the deal. In other words, nothing that will concern his supporters.
An aggressive adversary is reinvigorated, our reputation is damaged, and the validity of democracy as a functioning governmental system is thrown into doubt. Not bad for a little bit of manipulation.
