Politico reports on the latest bit of political drama to pop up in Washington:
Rep. Blake Farenthold announced Friday he would resign immediately from Congress, after an ethics inquiry was opened into allegations of sexual harassment and other inappropriate behavior from former staff members.
The Texas Republican had said he would not run for reelection, but he had previously resisted calls to step down.
Source: Ballotpedia
Possibly a special election will be held in order to fill his seat for the remainder of the Congressional term, which lasts until November. If this holds true, I think this is important because the outcome of such a special election will give both parties a preview of how the mid-term elections may turn out for the entire House and the third of the Senate seats up for election (+2 more than usual, the extras being Franken’s and Cochrane’s seats, and even possibly McCain’s if his illness becomes too severe for him to continue to serve effectively). Such information can be used to improve messaging and other campaign tactics. In fact, if Trump comes to town to the district to campaign on behalf of the GOP candidate, then the candidate’s performance becomes important data for other GOP candidates with regards to Trump’s reputation.
Unfortunately – for the GOP, in my opinion – a source told Politico that there may not be a special election:
Farenthold’s seat leans Republican, and [Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Ohio), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee] expressed confidence the GOP would hold the district in the fall. A GOP source familiar with the matter said a special election before November was unlikely.
But suppose there was a special election – what are the chances that voters will deliver a whack to the nose of the Republicans in Texas for the special election? Since the redistricting in 2011, according to Ballotpedia Farenthold has won his district with never less than 56% of the vote, and twice more than 61% of the vote. In other words, he’s been dominant. It seems unlikely that the Democrats will be able to quickly rally to select a candidate acceptable to Texas independents and Democrats. Still, if Texas Republicans in the 27th district are sufficiently deflated by the sudden collapse of Farenthold into a puddle of ethical mush, they may have a chance. In fact, that latter possibility applies for the usual election if the special election is not held.
Incidentally, Ballotpedia had this delightful note concerning the 2011 redistricting:
Texas was redistricted in 2011. The controversial map, approved by the Texas Legislature and signed by Gov. Rick Perry, was appealed up to the U.S. Supreme Court before going into effect.
In redistricting, The Hill published a list of the Top Ten House Members who were helped by redistricting. Farenthold ranked 1st on the list.
The fact that a seat is safe for a party doesn’t mean the member who holds it is a safe office-holder. Indeed, because of its status as safe, it’ll attract cockroaches. Now, I don’t know if Farenthold was categorically a cockroach – but clearly, if he resigns just as the Ethics Committee is revving up its engines, there might be something to the suggestion that he has a relation to an insect.
