In WaPo, David Weigel discusses the next special election, for Arizona’s 8th district, considered to be at least as ruby-red as PA-18. But this time around, the candidate for the Republicans is Debbie Lesko, a former State Senator who appears to be enthusiastic and committed, unlike the PA-18 Republican candidate. The surprise?
The Republican National Committee has put $281,250 into the special election to replace former congressman Trent Franks, the first financial commitment by either national party in a district that has voted reliably Republican since being drawn in 2011.
The RNC declined to comment on the investment, but Arizona’s 8th District was not necessarily seen as a potential Democratic pickup. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won just 37 percent of the vote in the district — worse than her showing in Pennsylvania’s 18th District, which Democrat Conor Lamb just won in a squeaker.
The Cook Political Report rates the Arizona 8th as “safe” for Republicans, and Democrats seemed to write off the district after scandal-plagued former state senator Steve Montenegro lost last month’s Republican primary to former state senator Debbie Lesko. The election to replace Franks, who resigned after it was revealed that he had urged an employee to bear his child as surrogate mother, is on April 24.
There’s no mention of any polls showing a close race, although Weigel does mention that Lesko’s opponent, Dr. Hiral Tipirneni, has an effective first attack ad out, so perhaps the RNC is simply feeling a little jumpy. There’s certainly no history to make them jumpy, though – since redistricting in 2011, Representative Franks, who resigned in the wake of a scandal, easily won the two elections for the Republicans. It’s not worth even graphing, since the Democrats failed to run anyone in 2012.
As with PA-18, it’s not the victory which will matter so much as the change in winning margin for the Republican. It was so large in PA-18 that the Democrat won by the skin of his teeth. Once again, it seems unlikely that the Democrat will win, deep in Republican country – but who knows? An inspired campaign, disaster on the other side, unforeseen events can easily tip these campaigns one way or the other.
And what if Trump comes to campaign, and Lesko loses in a shocker? Just a minor dream on my part, but that would be another small step on the rebuilding of the conservative movement into something other than a body of extremists.
