The folks at the Center for Economic and Policy Research are searching for signs of the coming economic boom:
The National Federation of Independent Businesses released its February survey of its members this morning. The survey showed (page 29) that 29 percent of businesses expect to make a capital expenditure in the next 3 to 6 months, the same percentage as in January. This is somewhat higher than the 26 percent reported for February of 2017, but below the 32 percent reported for August of last year. It’s also the same as the 29 percent reading reported back in August of 2014 when a Kenyan socialist was in the White House.
In other words, there is no evidence here of any uptick in investment whatsoever and certainly not of the explosive increase promised by the Trump administration. Maybe if Trump did some more tweeting on the issue it would help.
To my totally untrained mind, it might be a trifle too soon for the great economic expansion to begin, but it might be time to start getting antsy about it, if you were in any way dependent on it. But keep an eye out for reports on the monthly balance of tax collection vs outlays at the Federal level, such as this one from Reuters:
The U.S. government had a $215 billion budget shortfall in February as revenues into the government’s coffers fell and outlays increased, the Treasury Department said on Monday.
That compared with a budget deficit of $192 billion in the same month last year, according to Treasury’s monthly budget statement.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the Treasury recording a $216 billion deficit last month.
If those continue to grow, then we’ll know that the Kansas “miracle” is now afflicting all of us. Only, the Federal government is allowed to run deficits, unlike the states, and the deficit hawks are muffled. Thus, we’ll need to keep watch ourselves.
