How bad has it been negotiating with the North Koreans? Robert Carlin on 38 North, a veteran of these activities, describes it:
The fact is that when they are serious, the North Koreans are good negotiators, but no better than our own. They practice Diplomacy 101. A productive set of negotiations with them follows a pattern found anywhere in the world: Define the problem in terms that both sides can claim benefit from a solution; divide the problem into parts; move from easiest to hardest to solve; fix details and define terms; review again so that both sides understand what is and what isn’t in the agreement; agree on implementation details and timetable.
No agreement is an agreement unless both sides say it is. That’s tautological. “Seizing control” of the agenda is a bad idea. The North Koreans know we won’t negotiate simply on the basis of “their” agenda, and we should know the same about them. It never hurts to be the first one to put a piece of paper on the table, and since the North Koreans are frequently in reaction mode, that’s often what the US is able to do.
On the other hand, now we have two new faces. Based on Trump’s failures to make deals, it’s a bit nerve-wracking, while Kim is more of an unknown quantity. There may be more continuity on the North Korean side than the American side – which may be a good recipe for being snookered. Carlin’s final word on the matter:
High-level meetings with the North, in my experience, have not been a zero-sum game. The last thing we should want is to force them into that mold.
This will be deadly serious business for both sides – not a situation for a fly-by-night rookie. But that’s probably why North Korean made the offer to talk and to throw quite the toothsome cookie out as bait.
