The latest Presidential Approval poll from Gallup once again proves the efficacy of the ‘I’ word – that is, indictments. A week or so ago, Trump reached a 40% approval rating for the first time in a while. The announcement of indictments on Friday, and along came a plummet by Sunday of 3%. It appears the public considers an indictment, even one that hardly mentions candidate / President Trump and does not allege any collusion, as a black mark on this Administration.
But I’m betting that, absent any more indictments in the next week, the following rendition of this poll will show Trump recovering. Part of this, I think, is burnout as folks tire of the circus in Washington. I count myself among that crowd.
Another part is really disbelief. The incompetency on show from Trump and his GOP is really quite gob-smacking, and at some point those who voted for him must make the choice of believing they screwed up or that this is really an illusion. Not many people like to admit they’re wrong on something like this, because, despite Governor Ventura’s remark that voting is not horse-racing – it doesn’t matter if you voted for the winner or not – many people do put their ego on it, especially if it’s an ideological thing. Even if the ideology is “liberals suck.”
In the end, some major event will have to occur before Trump leaves office before his term is finished, voluntarily or otherwise. An admission of collusion, a discovery by the intelligence agencies of a critical failure in relation to Russia or possibly China because of Executive Branch incompetence – or Speaker Ryan bringing Articles of Impeachment up for consideration by the House.
Source: Gallup
So, in a sense, I think Speaker Ryan really holds the future of the GOP, as it’s currently composed, in his hands. The way I see it, the more he plays to the GOP base, the more he will alienate the independents and moderate Republicans upon which the Party is truly dependent. The base is ordinarily considered important, but it’s become so rabidly extreme that it’s an anchor dragging this canoe into the depths. And the Republican Party needs to face the reality that they are bleeding. The chart to the left is some proof of that, as Republican share of the electorate has shrunk to 22%. Even more surprising, the Independents are also down 2 points from last month’s poll. The winners? The Democrats, up 5 points. In a month. While I doubt most moderate Republicans would re-register with the Democrats, I don’t doubt that a lot of independents have become so disgusted with the Republicans that they’ve decided to register as Democrats. So if the GOP wishes to continue its dominance in Congress, it must appeal to the independents and moderate Republicans.
Speaker Ryan may be able to stem the tide, though. President Trump has revealed himself as incompetent in foreign relation strategies and personnel, and uninterested in the ways of government – he appears to think it’s just a big corporation to run, but, baby, this animal is truly something other than a company. If Ryan began the process of ridding us of President Trump, he might find that it’s a useful strategy for communicating to the independents and the apostate that the party is reforming itself, and that they’re once again a mature governing Party.
Of course, then he’d run the risk of being stuck with a President Pence, who has kept a lower profile than Trump. He didn’t do so well in Indiana as Governor Pence, so the tea leaves aren’t promising.
But he may figure anything’s better than a President Trump hanging around his neck come 2018 Election Day. Especially if GOP gerrymandering is undone.
