Yearly Archives: 2018

Stochastic:

The word stochastic is an adjective in English that describes something that was randomly determined. The word first appeared in English to describe a mathematical object called a stochastic process, but now in mathematics the terms stochastic process and random process are considered interchangeable. The word, with its current definition meaning random, came from German, but it originally came from Greek στόχος (stokhos), meaning ‘aim, guess’.

The term stochastic is used in many different fields, particularly where stochastic or random processes are used to represent systems or phenomena that seem to change in a random way. Examples of such fields include the physical sciences such as biology, chemistry, ecology, neuroscience and physics as well as technology and engineering fields such as image processing, signal processing, information theory, computer science, cryptography and telecommunications. It is also used in finance, due to seemingly random changes in financial markets. [Wikipedia]

My Arts Editor mentioned she didn’t know what stochastic meant. Here it is!

I’ve mentioned concrete before as an emitter of CO₂ during its production, but I was not aware of another of its shortcomings as a building material – consumer of sand. Julian Smith reports in NewScientist (17 February 2018, paywall) :

Riverbed mining downstream of the Karcham Wangtoo Dam on the Sutlej River.
Photo by Samir Mehta/International Rivers.

Concrete is made mostly of sand and its chunkier cousin gravel, with a little cement and some water mixed in. Most recipes call for large, rough sand grains that bind together well. So, although there may be mountains of the stuff blowing around in the Sahara, for example, those grains are no good for most types of concrete – they are too small and polished round by the wind. The best sources of concrete-compatible sand are river beds, beaches and the near-shore seabed. Sand from the ocean floor works too, although it needs to be laboriously purged of salt and chlorine.

Sand mining in such places can ravage the environment. For instance, in the past few years sand pirates have harvested so much grainy booty from islands in Indonesia that at least 24 of them have disappeared. Much of the sand is shipped to the cramped island state of Singapore, where it is used in land reclamation projects. Meanwhile, there are fears of ecological catastrophe in Indonesia.

There are many more stories like this (see “Aggregate armageddon”) and they show we have a serious sand problem. But it is hard to know exactly how serious. Few countries publish how much sand they extract, in part because widespread off-the-books mining means most don’t know themselves. It is telling that the official import and export statistics for sand don’t cancel out.

Our sand crisis is a classic case of the tragedy of the commons, where unfettered access to a common resource leads to demand that overwhelms the supply. One logical solution, then, is to set up and enforce rules on how much sand can be mined – but that is easier said than done, especially in remote places. “The real solution is to decrease our need for sand,” says Peduzzi.

But, unfortunately, the article says nothing about returning to the old standby, wood, as I’ve mentioned on this blog before. Perhaps the author perceives the use of wood as being non-scalable in the face of a world where the phrase burgeoning population is still our present and future – not our past.

Ever think the scent of the great outdoors is so much better out of town than in? Well, it’s because it is, according to “Silence Of The Plants,” Marta Zaraska, NewScientist (17 February 2018, paywall), an article on how plants communicate with each other:

Now we are discovering that air pollution can disrupt these communications. In one study, Blande and his colleagues put individual bumblebees into a chamber containing paper flowers resembling those of black mustard. When the scientists injected the scent of real black mustard flowers that grew in either a clean or polluted atmosphere the bumblebees’ reactions were unequivocal: they were immediately attracted to the unpolluted scent, while that from polluted air left them buzzing around aimlessly.

What’s going on? In the past few years, ozone and nitrogen oxides have emerged as the main gibberish-inducing culprits. These ultimately result from vehicle and power plant emissions, with diesel exhaust a particular problem. Both ozone and nitrogen oxides react with the volatile chemicals released by plants. This changes the smell of their bouquet by degrading some compounds in the mix more readily than others. When monoterpene limonene, a common “word” of oranges, is mixed with ozone, for example, it degrades into as many as 1200 different compounds.

Such degradation can happen surprisingly fast. Ecologist Robbie Girling at the University of Reading, UK, and his colleagues exposed eight common compounds produced by flowers to diesel exhaust. “What we weren’t expecting was the speed with which these reactions seem to be occurring,” he says. “Within a minute, which is the shortest time period our method could resolve, we couldn’t see anything of one of the compounds. It was instantaneously undetectable.” (See “When plants talk dirty”)

This strikes me as an example of how emission-less vehicles will improve our living environment, regardless of whether their electricity is derived from renewables or fossil fuels, because in the latter case it’s far more likely that we can effect some sort of air-scrubbing / capture of the noxious fumes before release of the final by-product; having a million cars with local, inferior air-scrubbers is not a great solution. And if the electricity is from renewables, so much the better, even granting that such sources will have their own distinct problems.

Of course, bicycles would be even better – unless human sweat can also interfere with the plants’ language, which is actually not a joke, just some wonderment on my part.

Intelligent Speed Assistance (ISA) is getting a boost from the European Transport Safety Council (ETSC), and is intended to slow down traffic to safer speeds in order to bring down the death rate. From the ETSC:

ISA uses a speed sign-recognition video camera and/or GPS-linked speed limit data to advise drivers of the current speed limit and automatically limit the speed of the vehicle as needed. ISA systems do not automatically apply the brakes, but simply limit engine power preventing the vehicle from accelerating past the current speed limit unless overridden or switched off. The first vehicles with this kind of ISA system factory fitted have begun appearing on the market – helped in part by Euro NCAP’s decision to reward extra points for vehicles that include ISA. …

The importance of the adoption of the technology cannot be underestimated. ISA is expected to reduce collisions by 30% and deaths by 20%.

ISA has been trialled in many member states, and while drivers take a short time to adjust to the technology, the majority appreciated it. One obvious benefit, as Ford has pointed out in a recent marketing campaign, is that it helps drivers avoid speeding tickets.

This would probably become a matter of conflict in the United States, given a long, if unfortunately, tradition of going fast on the highways (although not as consistently fast as on the European autobahns – but I believe this is for side streets and minor highways). It’s a little hard to come up with a valid argument beyond that of the importance of the freedom to control your own car – and your own destiny.

Unfortunately, that destiny ends up being tangled up with everyone else’s.

The phone rings, I answer:

THIS IS AN EMERGENCY CALL, YOUR MICROSOFT LICENSE HAS EXPIRED AND ALL THE SERVICES ON YOUR COMPUTER [forgotten], TO RENEW YOUR LICENSE PLEASE CALL 1-833- …

You can’t annoy an automated call, can you? Microsoft itself has a page talking about these scams here. Makes you wonder how many of their own tech support people get taken in by the scammers.

Be wary out there, smarter people than I have been taken in by these scams.

On 38 North Andray Abrahamian looks back at the sanctions levied on Myanmar as a way to predict what might happen in North Korea as sanctions are strengthened against the Kim regime:

Imagine you could somehow go back to when US sanctions on Burma began in 1988. If you could tell Congress and President Reagan that over two decades, sanctions would not only cost ordinary citizens great hardships, but would entrench a class of mega-rich cronies whose fortunes were inexorably tied to the military government, would they still go ahead and begin the process of targeting the country?

In 1988, Burma was renamed Myanmar, but in a more important shift, it also reconsidered socialism and embraced a market economy. The same year, however, the Junta killed hundreds of people in a vicious crackdown on protesters. Holding and then ignoring election results for two years later and further outrages against Aung San Suu Kyi led to the US imposing round after round of unilateral sanctions.

Unfortunately, this meant that just as the country was privatizing industries, access to training, foreign direct investment (FDI) and international financing became scarce. A new class of businessmen, leveraging political relationships with the military, took early concessions in extractive industries, import licenses or construction projects, and then reinvested revenues into expanding into a range of sectors. The scarcity of inputs meant there was no catching up for subsequent players.

Presumably you then see the early pioneers growing rich and entrenched, unmolested by later challengers who just don’t have the oomph to shift them out of their positions. His conclusion:

Sanctions have often been derided as a “blunt instrument,” but this is a poor metaphor. A better comparison might be to an untested toxin or medicine injected into a patient. Some effects are understandable and predictable but the unintended side-effects can be extensive, enduring and in the end, contradictory to the goals of sanctions.

And Andray thinks it unlikely that small actors will get much traction in the North Korea economy while sanctions bottle up the country. The early big actors, closely allied to the regime, will dominate.

Returning to this thread concerning the next special election for the Representative seat of PA-18, word has it that private polls show the GOP candidate, State Rep Rick Saccone, with a lead of only single digits over the Democratic challenger, Conor Lamb. Lamb sounds like a conservative Democrat, vowing to not vote for Pelosi as House leader, unwilling to support universal Medicare or a higher minimum wage. In short, he’s not a progressive, which is a canny move for the Democrats in this conservative district.

Saccone, on the other hand, has clasped Trump in a bear hug, and so this makes this very much a election test of President Trump. In a district he might normally carry by 20 points, if Saccone barely wins, or even loses, it’ll be a clear flag of just how much President Trump has become a drag on the Republican Party.

There’ll be anguish the night of this election. The only question will be who has the groans that night. Impossible to say right now.

Jennifer Rubin, WaPo:

This is not so much as an administration as a weird fusion of the court of Louis XIV and the Mafia, all built around a cult of personality that lacks any self-restraint or awareness.

And the pendulum then swings back when it comes to Trump, the NRA, and gun control:

The top lobbyist for the National Rifle Association claimed late Thursday that President Trump had retreated from his surprising support a day earlier for gun control measures after a meeting with N.R.A. officials and Vice President Mike Pence in the Oval Office.

The lobbyist, Chris Cox, posted on Twitter just after 9 p.m. that he met with Mr. Trump and Mr. Pence, saying that “we all want safe schools, mental health reform and to keep guns away from dangerous people. POTUS & VPOTUS support the Second Amendment, support strong due process and don’t want gun control. #NRA #MAGA.”

Mr. Trump tweeted about an hour later, “Good (Great) meeting in the Oval Office tonight with the NRA!” [The New York Times]

There’s in public, and then there’s in public, Presidential style. Perhaps Donald Trump has always blown with the wind like this, but prior to becoming a candidate for President, to say nothing for President, it wasn’t really something noticeable if you weren’t directly associated with the Donald.

But being President means we can all, if we wish to or feel so obligated, be directly associated with the Donald. And his wishy-washiness just becomes more and more apparent. There’s no mission, no drive, no willingness to do something for the good of the Nation – it’s all about what makes the Donald feel good right now.

He’s a ship in a gale and he’s three sheets to the wind.

Will we have a tariff on steel and aluminum next week? Stay tuned.

A user has a correction in response to my last post on this thread, which ended with:

This case may affect your Internet experience in the future, especially if the State considers your activities to be criminal.

My reader’s note:

Minor addendum to your last sentence: “if ANY state considers your activities criminal.”

Heh. Correction noted.

I suppose my physicist readers – if any – will not be surprised by this, but this is the sort of thing that boggles me. From NewScientist (17 February 2018):

It is called superionic ice. It only occurs at temperatures matching those on the sun’s surface, and pressures exceeding a million Earth atmospheres – the environment predicted at the centre of ice giants. In this hot ice, the oxygen ions of the water molecules behave like a solid, staying in place to form a lattice, while the hydrogen ions flow through it like a fluid.

This structure gives superionic water ice resistance to very high temperatures.

From the academic paper’s abstract:

Using time-resolved optical pyrometry and laser velocimetry measurements as well as supporting density functional theory–molecular dynamics (DFT-MD) simulations, we document the shock equation of state of H₂O to unprecedented extreme conditions and unravel thermodynamic signatures showing that ice melts near 5,000 K at 190 GPa.

5000° K appears to be around 8540° F. It’s just so interesting and surprising how the properties of matter change with pressure from surrounding matter.

The real question is whether or not some sort of specific, tangible benefit will come from this research.

And here’s an ice giant that may have this stuff at its core:

Neptune!
Image credit: NASA/JPL

It’s sort of a law of the markets that investors in big companies, as well as the medium sized companies, along with positive potential, want to see predictability in the business of their favored companies; it lets the investors sleep at night.

President Trump’s announcement of tariffs on steel (25%) and aluminum (10%) may have just taken that quality away from businesses yesterday. It’s not that tariffs may be enacted, but the manner in which they were announced – uncoordinated, without consultation with industry or Congress, but simply as a matter of arbitrary fiat. President Trump may claim, even justifiably, that he is fulfilling a campaign promise, but President Trump is notorious for making many claims, mostly false, to justify his actions. He is in the process of proving, however, that is willing to enact tariffs on the spur of the moment.

And the result of these tariffs? No one knows for sure. Members of his own party aren’t happy. Certainly, foreign powers, from adversaries to allies, are not happy, as CNN makes clear:

The EU and Canada both expressed their opposition to the new tariffs shortly after they were announced, and said they weren’t afraid to retaliate.

“We will not sit idly while our industry is hit with unfair measures that put thousands of European jobs at risk,” European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said in a statement.

Predictably, President Trump is embracing the chaos:

When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win. Example, when we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore-we win big. It’s easy!

It’s interesting how he tries a sleight of hand – moving from a product to a country. But will he continue? I’ve noticed Trump likes to throw proposals out to see what happens and then withdraws them – or pretends he never made them – in favor of another. So these tariffs are not a done deal.

However, this has to upset the jittery investor, as we’re already seeing in the market behavior of yesterday and, so far, today – down, down, down. And don’t forget the algorithmic traders whose algorithms may not understand how President Trump operates, which is easy to believe as most of the United States doesn’t really understand him, either.

Regardless of whether or not these tariffs are actually implemented, the markets have been put on notice that President Trump will meddle in the national economy as his whims takes him – and that investors should beware.

I anticipate a lumpy ride until we toss him out.

This long-dormant thread concerns the distribution of data across national boundaries, and recently a case involving exactly these concerns came up in front of SCOTUS, exciting some comment among the lawyers. Professor Andrew Keane Woods of Lawfare has a summary post:

On Tuesday, the Supreme Court will hear oral argument in United States v. Microsoft Corp., a case that will carry broad consequences for our digital lives. The issue to be resolved is whether a warrant obtained under the Stored Communications Act (SCA) can compel a U.S. company to produce information under its control but stored outside the United States. If the Supreme Court answers that question affirmatively, some commentators warn that authoritarian governments will compel American companies with a presence in their borders to produce similar information. But if the court says no, others fear that governments will pass so-called “data localization” laws requiring companies to preserve copies of their data within the judiciary’s jurisdictional reach.

Andrew then further comments here, but to summarize his fascinating post, SCOTUS was enigmatic in its questioning and behavior, and ideological position appeared to not be significant. Andrew’s conclusion, insofar as that’s possible at this point:

One thing that was not mentioned was how the world might react to this case. For a court that often has a keen eye on whether it is in step with other courts around the world (for better or for worse), silence on this issue was notable.

Countries around the world are watching this case because it could be used as a precedent—privacy advocates have called it a dangerous precedent—for the state to exert extraterritorial control over the internet. If the U.S. can do it, the thought goes, then other states will do it. The problem with this concern is that states have long asserted, under longstanding principles of international law, the authority to regulate some international conduct because it has effects in the state, or it concerns the state’s citizens, and so on. So it is unsurprising that states are already busy regulating the internet in ways that have extraterritorial effects. The Canadian Supreme Court has attempted to compel Google to take down certain links worldwide. French authorities have attempted something similar. And just this week, a top EU regulator announced that she expected the EU’s impending privacy regime, the General Data Protection Regulation, to have extraterritorial effect. (This is particularly striking because the EU filed an amicus brief in the Microsoft case to argue, more or less, that it was hesitant about extraterritorial application of U.S. law.)

This case may affect your Internet experience in the future, especially if the State considers your activities to be criminal.

Retrocausality:

This idea that the future can influence the present, and that the present can influence the past, is known as retrocausality. It has been around for a while without ever catching on – and for good reason, because we never see effects happen before their causes in everyday life. But now, a fresh twist on a deep tension in the foundations of quantum theory suggests that we may have no choice but to think again. [“Blast from the future,” Adam Becker, NewScientist (17 February 2018, paywall)]

Iran continues to be concerned about water management, as AL Monitor reports:

Explaining the prospect of water conflicts in the Middle East in the near future, [Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas] Araghchi said, “The West Asia region is rapidly moving toward a complete drought. There are currently only nine countries in the region, including Iran, that have not faced a complete drought. But by 2025, all countries in the region, including Iran, will be in a state of complete drought.”

He said, “In such a situation, all countries are seeking to make full use of their water resources and do not allow water to flow out of their country. Our neighbors will adopt this policy, and we will as well. The country’s policy is to stop the flow of water from leaving the country. Of course, this is not so our neighbors become thirsty, but as I said, this needs to be managed.”

Mohammad-Ali Sobhanollahi, chancellor of Khawarizmi University, told conference participants, “The geopolitical map of the world, which was previously based on energy, will undergo water-related changes in the next 25 years.”

He emphasized that the water crisis in the Middle East is more severe compared with other parts of the world. “Reports indicate that the water crisis will cause massive displacement in the region in the next 25 years,” he told attendees.

The ecological consequences of stopping the flow of water across national boundaries will not be positive, unfortunately, since national boundaries rarely follow ecological boundaries. The impact of climate change may be severe for those countries located near the equator, for temperatures may soar out of the bounds of human survivability – at least when the human is unaided. Remember the old Indian remark about mad dogs and Englishmen? That may fade, finally, as even the mad dogs retreat to any haven they can find.

It really leads me to wonder what the Arabs and Persians will do as the heat soars and the poor suffer and die. Will they build refuge centers and hope they can keep them air-conditioned? Will underground living come into vogue?

Will they sue the United States in international courts for making their lives unlivable? Seeing as they supplied a substantial portion of the fossil fuels in question, that may not fly, although much of that supply occurred before anthropogenic climate change was known to be possible, much less probable.

Still, it appears the Arabs and Persians face a subdued, if not out and out grim, future. Still, never count out the industrious person. Elevated areas should be somewhat cooler, new technology may be developed.

The real trick will be avoiding war, as that disrupts everything positive, and that’s what they’ll need – positive developments.

First, a bit of exploitation, then we’ll do a splashy sacrifice, eh, boys?

Pleasantly forgettable, The Crimson Cult (1968; this is cut version of Curse of the Crimson Altar) is one of those brittle UK examples of the period in which characterization is somewhat neglected, resulting in characters that come and go and flirt and die with perhaps less reasonableness and urgency than fulfills the modern sensibility. Add in segues between scenes of a staccato nature, and the movie shares that brittleness often seen in British films of this period.

Robert Manning and his brother, Peter, are antique dealers, and Peter has gone off into the countryside in search of merchandise. He sends some items to his brother and then fails to return home. Robert goes to the small village of his last known location, encountering a people celebrating the burning of a witch centuries ago, and a local mansion whose inhabitants either cannot speak or claim they’ve never heard of a Peter Manning.

He persists, romancing a lady of the mansion, Lavinia Morley, and finally recalls his brother often used a fake name. This elicits a response from the owner of the mansion, who, in fine upper-class British form proclaims he doesn’t where Peter went, but now Robert’s having nightmares in which a woman is on trial and he is  under pressure to do – something.

Creeping over the edge of his subconscious into reality, his arm is bleeding when he finds himself staring into the lake. A cop has ambled by and gets him back into the house – but after a bit of opportunistic nookie, he finds his blood trail leads into a wall. Behind that is a hidden room, and with his love interest in tow he discovers a room of fake cobwebs and items that come from his nightmares.

Well, hopping over the usual mistakes and flourishes, it comes out that the master of the household has been searching for all the Mannings and other descendants of those villagers instrumental in the death of the witch Morley all those centuries ago, and then running them through this trial through hypnosis. As the lass Morley had the poor taste of sleeping with Robert, she gets to share in his misfortune. Fortunately for these two, a local professor rumbles up in his wheelchair, finds the hidden room, and shoot the master of the mansion in the hand. He, however, has the presence of mind to set the room afire and dies in the resulting conflagaration.

Oh, yeah, his name was also Morley.

There is a little tension, and it was nice to not have this take the easy route into the supernatural, but the lack of connection to the characters made it hard to really care, despite the efforts of Boris Karloff, who carried the part of the professor with great gravitas. Great acting can only compensate so much for inferior stories.

In the end, harmless and a trifle dull.

Remember the candidacy of Representative Mo Brooks (R-AL) for the Senate seat of Jeff Sessions during the special election of last year? He came in third in the GOP primary, and during his concession speech he said:

I do not support the Islamic state.

Well, the outrageous attacks are continuing, this time in Mississippi where incumbent Senator Wicker (R-MS) is facing a primary challenge from a certain State Senator Chris McDaniels, who, according to the Clarion-Ledger, kicked off his campaign with these statements at a rallly:

State Sen. Chris McDaniel announced his challenge and immediately began trying to run to the right of incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Roger Wicker on Wednesday, calling him “one of the most liberal senators.”

“I’m tired of electing people to Washington to score points for the other team,” McDaniel told a crowd of about 200 in a packed auditorium at Jones County Junior College in Ellisville. “We’ve been reaching across the aisle for years and what have we got? Twenty-one trillion reasons not to reach across the aisle anymore.. Wicker votes more often with Charles Schumer than he does with Rand Paul.”

McDaniel promptly mentioned Wicker’s support for changing the Mississippi flag—  the last in the nation to include the Confederate battle emblem — a potential weakness for Wicker among conservative, white Republicans.

Surely Senator Wicker must be some sort of liberal villain? Bunk buddies with Senate Minority Leader Schumer (D-NY)? Ummm … no. As of this writing, Senator Wicker has a Trump Score of 97%, meaning he votes the way Trump would like him to vote 97% of the time. No person willing to do a bit of research will mistake Wicker for being a liberal. He’s more like Trump’s lapdog.

And, of course, the bland mention of the government debt and associating it with the Democrats ignores this Congress’ contribution to the debt going forward, as well as the spend-happy Congress of 2000-2006, when the Republicans also controlled all the wings of government.

But it’s this willingness to indulge in blatant lies and misdirection which indicates the depth of the wounds in the Republican Party – and potentially the Democrats as well. This is all about a lust for position and power that overwhelms any basic urges towards the decency on which any reasonable society must be built. If we’re unwilling to treat our neighbors and political adversaries – all fellow Americans – in an honest and forthright manner, then our mainstream political culture is badly broken.

Once upon a time, political gatekeepers would have bounced people like McDaniels, and whoever spread the slander about Brooks, out on their noses. Today, they’re respected – or feared – politicians and political operatives who terminally pollute the very lakes in which they swim.

Prepare for more outrageous remarks by those desperate for prestige and power. Fortunately, behavior like McDaniels’ marks them with a big red flag. The trick is for the citizenry to do their research and reject McDaniels’ and his poisonous ilk – whether they’re running on the right or the left.

A reader comments on future American weakness:

Yes, the damage to intelligent, skillful government functioning in this country is irreparably damaged, and will remain that way for 30 to 50 years, even if the current president does not make it to full term. Worse, by then the world will have essentially passed us by. America in 30 years will no longer be the world leader, nor have the diplomatic, military and economic clout it has today; it’ll be a has-been barring some catastrophic event which allows us to regain that position (.e.g. such as was WW2, and that’s a less desirable outcome).

While that is certainly a possibility, I do not consider it a certainty. Reports from the field indicate an awakening on the part of the Democrats and the irreligious to the current problems of and in government, resulting in a flood of candidates at all levels of government for seats. Given the erratic and poor performance of this GOP-dominated U. S. government, apparent to anyone not living within the echo chamber of the extremist right wing, the ideology of the right should be discredited to some extent, although there’s the possibility of the baby landing in the snowbank next to its bathwater.

And if there’s one thing this country can do, it can move fast when it wants to. I worry about future weakness in this country, but I also think that if a resurgence of rational people in important government positions occurs, we can clamber back to the top. We have educational centers, physical resources, human resources (just think of the Obama Administration personnel who could be ready to step up and bring their expertise to bear), and a number of other advantages which we can take advantage of – if we stop plopping second- and third- raters into government.

That’s the key.

Of diplomacy, that is. I’d never heard of White House Calligraphers before, yet today various news outlets are crowing over the fact that the chief White House Calligrapher holds a Top Secret clearance – while Jared Kushner, the President’s son-in-law and lead on many important diplomatic missions, has lost his.

CNN has a nice history on the office, but here’s a site by the former chief White House Calligrapher Rick Paulus, showing some distinguished examples of his work:

Comity:

The legal principle that political entities (such as states, nations, or courts from different jurisdictions) will mutually recognize each other’s legislative, executive, and judicial acts. The underlying notion is that different jurisdictions will reciprocate each other’s judgments out of deference, mutuality, and respect.

In Constitutional law, the Comity Clause refers to Article IV, § 2, Clause 2 of the U.S. Constitution (also known as the Privileges and Immunities Clause), which ensures that “The Citizens of each State shall be entitled to all Privileges and Immunities of Citizens in the several States.” [Wex Legal Dictionary]

Noted in “Analysis of Microsoft-Ireland Supreme Court Oral Argument,” Andrew Keane Woods, Lawfare:

I would be surprised if the justices divide along ideological lines.  Justice Sonia Sotomayor seemed most persuaded by Microsoft’s position, and Justice Neil Gorsuch expressed some sympathy too—suggesting that the government’s position was to “ignore” the extraterritorial aspects of the case. But Justice Stephen Breyer may be inclined to rule the other way.  He suggested that magistrate judges ought to be able to issue warrants for foreign-held data as long as they take account of comity concerns—factors like whether another state has a legitimate interest in the data’s disclosure.

I thought this article from The Onion was a joke:

In an effort to make the frequent festivities for departing staffers more efficient, White House officials announced Tuesday that the administration is now just holding one continuous going-away party.

No, really, I did. But then came this report from WaPo just yesterday:

Josh Raffel, a senior communications official in the White House who has been a go-to crisis manager and who has worked closely with Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, is leaving the administration, officials confirmed Tuesday.

Raffel’s departure, which will take place within the next two months, comes as Kushner, President Trump’s senior adviser, is under increasing scrutiny for his inability to secure a complete FBI background check for his security clearance, and with special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s Russia investigation intensifying.

And Steve Benen adds:

The Raffel news came just one day after Joseph Yun, a top U.S. diplomat overseeing North Korea policy, announced his retirement.

And that news came three days after Elaine Duke, the deputy secretary of Homeland Security, announced her retirement.

And I’d quote more from Steve, but we have an interruption here! Communications Director Hope Hicks has resigned:

White House communications director Hope Hicks, one of President Donald Trump’slongest-serving and closest aides, is resigning, the White House confirmed Wednesday.

Hicks’ departure capped her meteoric rise from Trump Organization communications aide to the upper crust of power in Washington in just a few years, during which Hicks sought to maintain a remarkably low profile for someone in her position.

Her resignation will undoubtedly reverberate for months to come inside the West Wing, where Trump will find himself for the first time in more than three years without the constant presence of his most loyal aide — who is among the handful of aides who worked with Trump at his company, during the rollicking campaign and into the White House. [CNN]

Some of these folks came along for the Trump ride and discovered it was excessively bumpy, while others are long-time bureaucrats with a lot of expertise, and their retirements really do hurt our government.

So what to think of these goings? There’s the temptation to take a bit of schadenfreude in an unprecedented wave of people leaving government, and Steve Benen tries to keep a list of all the important people who leave, which can be found at the above link. I fear his list is becoming unwieldy.

But behind each leave-taking is another step into chaos. True, for the high level ideologues such as Bannon and Gorka, it’s just as well that they and their peculiar beliefs and theories are gone. But a lot of these people have real, useful skills, and those exits destabilizes our government more and more, leaving us vulnerable both in the short-term and in the long-term. How so? Because we miss possibilities, we fail to pursue activities to take advantage of opportunities. Our current government, which is basically leaderless, fails to pursue possibilities and I have to wonder if, 20 years in the future, we’ll look back on this clown show and wonder how much betters things could have been if we’d had a competent leader in place, rather than our self-centered amateur.

When will Speaker Ryan finally act?

The socially highly conservative organization Focus On The Family (FotF) has declared itself a church, according to Right Wing Watch:

Focus on the Family, the behemoth Religious Right organization founded by James Dobson, has declared itself to be a church, thereby avoiding a requirement that it file public tax documents, according to IRS records and a document available on the organization’s website.

Focus on the Family filed as a non-church 501(c)(3) nonprofit as recently as the 2014 fiscal year, submitting to the IRS a publicly available Form 990 as most tax-exempt nonprofits are required to do. But when the group posted a Form 990 for the 2015 fiscal year on its website—dated October 26, 2017, and reporting a massive budget of $89 million—it was emblazoned with the message “Not required to file and not filed with the IRS. Not for public inspection.”

Right Wing Watch admits to being puzzled. I’ve been thinking about this, and in the light of the upcoming mid-terms, I’m beginning to wonder if I’m seeing the light. Despite the Johnson Amendment, which bans churches from endorsing politicians, it still happens through small subterfuges such as ‘voter guides.’ FotF may be looking at the coming mid-terms, gulping at the current polls, and deciding to batten down the hatches. If the Democrats are as successful as they are hoping, FotF will be losing a friendly Congress, if not an Administration, in about a year.

If they’re planning to pour money into upcoming elections, especially the 2020 Presidential election, this may be their way of obscuring some of the money trying to influence voters.

The mercuriality of a President who values loyalty to himself above all is evident in this CNN report of the President’s statement on assault weapons:

After listening to Vice President Mike Pence talk about due process and the conversation that Trump had with governors earlier this week, the President suggested that in some cases, it is best to take the gun first and then go to court after.

“Or Mike, take the firearms first and then go to court,” Trump said.

He added, “A lot of times by the time you go to court, it takes so long to go to court to get the due process procedures, I like taking the guns early.”

Trump pointed to the shooter in the Parkland case, citing all the red flags and calls from neighbors — all warning signs that went unnoticed by law enforcement.

“Take the gun first, go through due process second,” Trump said.

The NRA can’t be happy. In fact, I think there’s was a big thump on the right-wing as the NRA was thrown into the cement mixer by Trump.

Their “mistake” was to put him in a position where he was in a bad light, and it doesn’t matter what NRA-friendly option he offers – he looks bad. This ultra-sensitive President cannot stand that, and in tried-and-true fashion, he swung all the way to the other side of the spectrum, suggesting that due process rights should be violated.

Will this fracture the support for President Trump? It’ll be interesting to see the polls over the following few days. The last poll from Gallup showed an up-tick, while other polls supposedly went lower than ever before.

And the sight of a sitting President recommending an illegal action is appalling. That is not an option for you, Mr. President.

But don’t be surprised if we see a surge in buying of guns and ammo.

A reader asks a question and gets an answer on Facebook concerning war weapon wounds:

Is “cavitation” what people are trying to say when they talk about “tumbling” bullets?

The answer:

The tumbling bullets create cavitation: the formation of an empty space within a solid object or body.

the formation of bubbles in a liquid, typically by the movement of a propeller through it.

A third reader notes that healing is relative:

I’d also like to point out that if you survive a gun shot of any kind, you will likely be damaged for life. Most surviving victims of gunshots don’t just walk away with a scar on their leg that’s a conversation piece. There’s very little press or information on those people, yet there are ten of thousands of people living with gunshot wound disabilities.

I can’t say I know anyone with a gunshot wound, at least that I can think of offhand.