There’s been the expected uproar over President Trump’s announcement that his Administration will recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel – the first nation to do so, as I understand it. I found Akiva Eldar’s analysis in AL Monitor an interesting take on it. Even the article title intrigues – Netanyahu left without any cards to play.
Every rookie cadet in the foreign service knows that in diplomacy, as in business, there are no free lunches. When a seasoned businessman like President Donald Trump grants Israel the coveted US recognition of Jerusalem as its capital, he expects a quid pro quo. That is why Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu orderedmembers of his government to lie low and, to the extent possible, abstain from crowing over the expected news from the White House. As a former furniture salesman (Netanyahu once worked in marketing for an Israeli furniture firm), the prime minister knows that an overly enthusiastic buyer jacks up the price of the goods. Netanyahu can assume that Trump will not risk upsetting his Saudi clients over the sensitive issue of Jerusalem — holy to both Muslims and Jews — just to please his Jewish and evangelical supporters/constituents. No one gives away such a gift, and with a 50% discount, at that. The first recognition by a foreign nation of Jerusalem as the capital of the Jewish state will come with a price tag, and it won’t be cheap.
Trump’s envoy Jared Kushner, speaking on Dec. 3 at the Saban Forum in Washington, indicated that his father-in-law’s administration was preparing another pricey gift for Israel. The president’s adviser told participants at the prestigious gathering that many countries in the region, traditional enemies of the Jewish state, now view Israel as a potential partner given their shared enemies: Iran and the Islamic State. He noted that the US Mideast peace team, which he leads, was focusing on efforts to implement what the countries in the region want — “economic progress, peace for their people.”
The price? Get the peace thing with the Palestinians figured out.
However, hatred of Iran, love of Israel and even covert intelligence support are not the only ingredients of regional peace. “If we’re going to try to create more stability in the region as a whole, you have to solve this issue,” Kushner said, referring to an Israeli-Palestinian agreement. The Saudis, Egyptians, Qataris, Jordanians, Emiratis, “everyone we’ve spoken with,” all view a solution to the Palestinian problem as important.
Indeed, with all due respect to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and despite the importance of efforts being invested by the president of the United States, two additional partners are needed to advance resolution of the Palestinian problem: Palestinians and Israelis.
As much as I view President Trump as a clumsy, uninterested amateur, even a delusional man who would be better spending his time in a private hospital, this time I have to wonder if he’s on to something. A big old carrot’s being dangled in front of Israel, but it’s still out of reach because Trump has also said he doesn’t know when the actual, physical movement of the embassy to Jerusalem will happen. This isn’t a private message, this is a big old public If you want the rest of this, you know what you have to do.
And also keep in mind that Netanyahu is in personal peril due to the corruption that has surrounded his administration. Handled skillfully, he may be able to use this opportunity to distract everyone, or at least dilute the findings of the police. And, of course, add to his legacy.
It’s not subtle, but then Trump has all the subtlety of a bull moose in rut. Along with the threats of Iran and the Islamic State in the region, which changes the calculus of diplomacy, it may be enough to tip that particular balance. Although I still have to wonder how a city considered holy by three different religions is going to be managed, both politically and practically. Hell, the different Christians sects sometimes have violent riots with each other over what seems to me to be trivia.
