On 38 North, Andray Abrahamian analyzes how Trump’s insults of Kim Jong-Un has substantially increased tensions:
Aside from the confusing signals he’s sending to Pyongyang by undermining the credibility of negotiators, the escalation towards personal insults carries several real downsides. First, he’s clearly upset Kim Jong Un, potentially clouding decision-making in the ongoing crisis. Second, in a system where the “dignity” of the state is prize above all else and conflated with reverence for the leader, policy-making elites around Kim will find it harder to advocate for discussions or compromise as long as the symbolic and practical heart of their country is being insulted. Ordinary citizens will have to be seen rallying around their leader, also. …
The seat of practical power [Kim Jong Un] is also the embodiment of political and social life. Thus, when Donald Trump took to personally insulting Kim Jong Un, he crossed a rhetorical line that Pyongyang will take more seriously than he could possibly imagine. Trump’s condescending “rocket man” swipes were in a sense assaults at the heart of North Korea, far graver than bombers flying off the coast in a show of force.
Every North Korean—regardless of how he or she actually feels—must publicly push back against such slurs. As long as insults continue, it is difficult to imagine anyone in Pyongyang considering meaningful talks to diffuse this crisis. In a fast-moving situation, any time lost could be catastrophic.
Kim Jong Un upped the ante, too. After all, he is not just a symbol but also apparently a quite prideful person. To defend his “dignity,” he slung his own insults back in the Rodong Sinmun [North Korean newspaper].
In doing so, Kim not only forced English speakers to look up the word “dotard,” but also made it clear to every one of his citizens that he took Trump’s insults very personally. Fortunately, he was light on prescriptions for action: statements by the Kims tend to become orthodoxy. But still, in a system where every person—certainly anyone near the top—competes to show loyalty to the leader, Kim has reduced the prospect of people close to him suggesting negotiations or compromises. Debate at the very top of North Korean politics does exist, but it comes prior to the leader’s decision. Kim has now narrowed that debate. Who could be seen to be advocating a softer line, when the dignity of their leader continues to be impugned?
If a cataclysm on the Korean peninsula is to be avoided, President Trump must dial back the personal nature of his rhetoric. What worked well on the campaign trail will not yield results with Kim Jong Un. Kim will push back. He may even stumble into a war for the sake of his personal pride.
Which I sense complicates the question of the impeachment of Donald Trump. Could he claim that by impeaching and convicting him, we’re playing into the hands of Kim? Showing ourselves to be “soft” in front of a second-class power?
What am I thinking – of course he would. He is one of the most unprincipled American politicians ever, and I think that means he’ll do anything to deflect attempts to remove him from power – and thus put a blot on his honor.
As if his tie isn’t already completely obscured by the blots.
But, to explain the title of this post, by impeaching and convicting Trump, it might put Kim in a position where he’s less likely to “… stumble into a war …” The question isn’t who loses face next week, but whether or not you country is still intact next year. Are we willing to sacrifice Los Angeles to feed Trump’s pride?
