Andray Abrahamian writes on 38 North about North Korean long term goals and how the Trump Administration appears to be playing into their hands:
Three generations of North Korea’s Kim family have dreamed of getting the United States off the Korean peninsula. Now, the Trump administration appears to be doing everything it can to undermine the US-South Korean alliance that has vexed Pyongyang since the armistice that ceased the Korean War was signed 64 years ago. …
In the past month, Trump has made statements on two fronts that continue to profoundly undermine the US-ROK [South Korea] alliance. The first was his August 8 off-the-cuff “fire and fury” remarks. The second was his more deliberate disdain for the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) that has been in effect for five years. Negotiations began during the Bush administration and the FTA was signed in 2012 during President Obama’s first term. Trump is now threatening to unilaterally pull out of the deal, and soon.
In the meantime, Kim Jong Un is marching along at his own pace in his quest for a credible nuclear deterrent against the United States, as last week’s missile and nuclear tests reemphasize. Pyongyang chooses more or less provocative ways of testing its nukes and missiles, but it has an end game and several overlapping goals in mind. That end game isn’t nuclear war, which would lead to the destruction of North Korea and the end of the Kim dynasty. But driving a wedge between the United States and its allies, especially South Korea, is among the likely aims (or at least hopes). For that to work, however, it would depend on some “cooperation” from politicians in Seoul or Washington.
But now the South Koreans have real doubts about the dependability of the United States. Is Trump’s mercuriality and general immaturity going to break a decades-long alliance and possibly expose South Korea to an existential danger? Keep in mind that South Korea isn’t some small, virtually invisible country who we won’t miss if they disappear into the sea. South Korea is home to Samsung, Hyundai, POSCO, and LG, integral components of the global economy.
But more generally, the inability of two of the great democracies of the world, bridging the East-West gap, to cooperate in mutual defense, would be a propaganda victory of immense proportions for President Kim Jong Un of North Korea. In a world where the various forms of government are in continual competition and the choice of form of government – a problematic yet accurate turn of phrase – is certainly an open question in many countries, it’s very discouraging and even dangerous to give Kim a step up in such a situation, no matter how barbaric we consider his country.
And don’t think that this is only a problem related to Trump. It’d be very easy for Kim to simply point at Trump and say,
Hey, this guy’s totally inappropriate to lead the United States, and yet there he is in the American Presidency. This is the result of democracy.
Now look at me. Under my leadership my tiny little country [25 million, or less than one tenth of the United States] has developed nuclear weapons, our own Internet, and a rockin’ economy.
Making the case for Kim’s little monarchical approach to ruling is easier than you might think. People look for success first, not great sounding principles, especially when they’re in chronic distress.
