And, probably faster than anyone expected, maybe even Bob Bauer, former Sheriff Joe Arpaio has been pardoned by President Trump.
President Donald Trump has pardoned controversial former sheriff Joe Arpaio of his conviction for criminal contempt, the White House said Friday night.
Arpaio, who was a sheriff in Maricopa County, Arizona, was found guilty of criminal contempt last month for disregarding a court order in a racial profiling case. Arpaio’s sentencing had been scheduled for October 5.
“Not only did (Arpaio) abdicate responsibility, he announced to the world and to his subordinates that he was going to continue business as usual no matter who said otherwise,” wrote US District Judge Susan Bolton in the July 31 order. [CNN]
For those who consider these matters soberly, with attention to conflicts of interest, checks & balances, and the importance of the separating determination of law from enforcement of law, this is a disturbing step by President Trump.
Fortunately for him, none of those people make up his base. His base is more or less the same people who kept re-electing Arpaio to his post as Sheriff of Maricopa County, AZ, because he was rough, tough, had no sympathy for prisoners, and didn’t take nonsense from the judicial system – which matches up well with how the right wing news groups have been training the conservative voters of the United States. Only in the 2016 election did the 84 year old Arpaio finally lose (56% to 43%, for what it’s worth). I don’t know why. Maybe his age played a part. Perhaps there was evidence of corruption as well as news of his trial.
By pardoning Arpaio, Trump is borrowing Arpaio’s mantle as a law & order peace officer to claim that’s he’s a law & order President, which is mildly ironic, given that Arpaio was convicted not only of breaking the law, but of disregarding direct orders from those whose responsibility it is to interpret the law. Basically, Arpaio claimed that, because he was on the front lines, he could do what he felt was best, and the hell with the system. This fits in well with the psychology of the Trump base, who are often frustrated with how the system works, since it often approaches problems with care and subtlety, rather than a bazooka and a wad of chewing tobacco.
But this is really a political move by Trump. He can read the polls, and while he may publicly dismiss them as “fake news,” this event proves that he doesn’t believe his own rhetoric. On the left is the latest Gallup Daily Presidential Approval poll. His approval ratings have reached a new low for Gallup, 34%, while disapproval is at 60%, right near the high. Carefully eyeballing the general trend suggests Trump is gradually losing support as more and more people awaken to the fact that he spews lies daily and makes bad choices.
That said, will this decision shore him up or cause more beach to slide into the sea? I don’t know. There’s virtually no support for Trump from the liberals, so no liberal is really going to experience dismay for the first time when word of this comes out. His core base will be encouraged by it. And the general GOP voter? It depends on how strongly the GOP core reacts to all of these triggers. If this doesn’t make sense, I suggest reading this post, and then going out and buying The Persuaders. Author James Garvey discusses how public political debate is devolving into the recitation of certain ‘trigger’ words which are designed to elicit certain reactions from listeners – even if they don’t realize it. The reactions are designed to cause the voter to vote for a particular candidate, usually the one using the trigger words. The Republicans are far ahead in this area, principally from the work of Frank Luntz, but the Democrats are working on it. This is a trend I detest and decry as contrary to the ways of the Republic.
But I also wonder if those reactions can, well, wear out. Like my joints these days, which snap and crack, perhaps those reactions become less reactive as they are used more and more. I know of no research in this area, but I can hope that it’s true. Perhaps certain GOP voters may begin thinking about the actions of this irrational, childish President – and he will see his support further shrink.
