Source: NASDAQ.com, of course.
The markets have been somewhat tentative over the last few business days, with a bit of a thud today as the Nasdaq took a 2.13% tumble. What does it definitely mean? Beats me. But it’s worth speculating that an awareness that the Administration is basically, well, kooky, may be spreading through the investment community. Mutual funds and other large entities may be a large part of the community, but individual investors, moving unconsciously en masse, can also move the markets. While many have applauded deregulation, I think that, regardless of its merits, it will be overshadowed by threats of war and a deconstruction of a Federal government which until now has provided a certain stability to the markets and the country – and, when it hasn’t the market has tumbled in response. I refer to the termination of the Glass-Steagall Act as well as other modifications to the law which resulted in the Great Recession.
Despite Kevin Drum’s best efforts to give Trump no credit for the continued progress most of the stock market indices have been making, Trump has grabbed credit with both hands. But if the markets fall, will he similarly accept blame? That’s the thing about the markets – if they go up, the government can only accept credit for smoothing the waters, stopping the wars, and basically providing a stable, predictable environment for the anxiety-ridden investment community. A good market crash is often encouraged by bad government policies, but a bull market, once out of the pothole inflicted by the market, may depend on factors outside of government influence.
This is not fertile soil for Donald Trump, in reality. But will investors notice? Precisely, will small investors who voted for Trump connect any fall in the markets with the chaos at the Federal level, the spear-waving, mendacity, and general destruction wrought by those with dubious ideologies?
Should be interesting to find out. The latest Gallup daily poll shows Trump at 36% approval, which is his lowest in this particular poll – he keeps falling to 36% and then bouncing off it. The question in my mind is whether or not we’ll see a jump as citizens rally to a President facing down the North Korean threat – or if enough people, watching his blustering performance, will give up in disgust and force it lower. It’s a three day rolling average, so it may take a couple of days to find out.
