In an unsigned column entitled “China, China, China,” on 38 North, the writer suggests there’s a lot of silly ideas being proposed for dealing with the North Korean problem:
The suggestions range on a scale of one to ten, with ten qualifying as “magical thinking” down to one, “nice try, but impractical.” Top prizes in the “magical thinking” category go to the neocon duo, John Bolton and Jay Lefkowitz. Appearing on Fox News a few days ago and writing in the Wall Street Journal today, Bolton, who has a long history of magical thinking on a wide range of issues, argues that the only diplomatic solution left is “to convince China that it’s ultimately in their interest to reunite the two Koreas,” adding “the way you eliminate the North Korean nuclear program is to eliminate North Korea.” To be fair, Bolton admits “it’s a hard argument to make,” but then adds that “it’s doable.”
So let me get this straight. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson would fly to Beijing and convince Chinese leaders that the United States has their back when it comes to the Korean peninsula. Not only would Washington support an effort—peaceful or by force—to eliminate the North Korean regime, but would also allow China to determine the fate of the peninsula. Whether Tillerson would stop in Seoul and Tokyo before or afterwards to inform our allies that the US had decided to acquiesce to Chinese domination of Northeast Asia would be his call. Doable? Not in this lifetime.
No surprise from Bolton. He may not qualify as an amateur, but I can’t say I’ve ever heard him make sense. He’s always struck me as a provincial nationalist in the skin of a diplomat. In order to be an effective diplomat, you must understand the needs of those you deal with. You can’t just represent your own interests and consider them paramount.
Jay Lefkowitz, in an opinion piece in the New York Times, recommends that the United States abandon its decades-old support for reunification of the Korean peninsula. This would assuage Chinese fears that US influence would spread to its borders if North Korea collapsed because of overwhelming pressure from Beijing. Based on the US pledge, China would abandon its national interest and carry Washington’s water and somehow eliminate the North Korean threat. Furthermore, if the situation devolved into collapse and chaos, China would have a free hand to deal with the turmoil and establish a new client state in the North. I wonder if Lefkowitz could sell ice to Eskimos?
I have not heard of Lefkowitz, but it sounds like more neocon drivel. How they have not been utterly discredited by the travesty of the Iraq War and the ongoing oozing wound in Afghanistan is quite beyond me.
Conclusion:
If [former Ambassador] Steve Bosworth[1] were here today, he would repeat his admonition about the folly of Washington telling other countries where their national interests lie. He would add that the only way to deal with the North Korean challenge is to recognize reality—that is, understanding what our interests are and what China, North Korea and others view as their own interests—and to try to take them all into account. Having spent 15 years working on the North Korean challenge, Steve would be the first to admit that crafting such a solution through diplomacy will be difficult and maybe impossible. But given the alternatives, it is worth a try.
The alternative is military strikes which would cost many lives on both sides of the war, and quite possibly embitter millions of more people towards the United States and our systems of government and economics. It doesn’t matter what Americans might think in that circumstance; proof is in the pudding is what counts. One of the dangers of our system of government is the accession of provincials to the levers of power. The creation of a corps of experts in the form of the federal bureaucracy is a bulwark against the folly of such people.
How long will it hold against the combined foolishness of both Trump and Kim Jong-un?
Meanwhile, the U.N. has passed a new sanctions resolution. Via CNN:
The UN Security Council unanimously voted to impose wide-ranging sanctions against North Korea on Saturday for its continued intercontinental ballistic missile testing and violations of other UN resolutions. The sanctions resolution targets North Korea’s primary exports, including coal, iron, iron ore, lead, lead ore and seafood. The sanctions also target other revenue streams, such as banks and joint ventures with foreign companies.
Haley praised the unanimous vote on the resolution, saying that the UN “spoke with one voice.”
“To have China stand with us, along with Japan and (South Korea) and the rest of the international community telling North Korea to do this, it’s pretty impactful,” Haley said. “This was a strong day in the UN, it was a strong day for the United States and it was a strong day for the international community. It was not a good day for North Korea.”
North Korea has been sanctioned before. How will this direct assault on them persuade them to abandon nuclear weapons again? I hope it works – but I don’t expect it to work.
