Michael Elleman on 38 North examines a video of the recent North Korean ICBM test and concludes the North Koreans haven’t achieved their objective – yet:
At this point, the RV appears to be shedding small radiant objects and is trailed by an incandescent vapor. At an altitude of 3 to 4 km, the RV then dims and quickly disappears. This occurs before the RV passes behind the mountain range and is obscured from the camera’s view, indicating that it disintegrated about the time it experienced maximum stressing loads. Had the RV survived the rigors of re-entry, it would have continued to glow until disappearing behind the mountains.
In short, a reasonable conclusion based on the video evidence is that the Hwasong-14’s re-entry vehicle did not survive during its second test. If this assessment accurately reflects reality, North Korea’s engineers have yet to master re-entry technologies and more work remains before Kim Jong Un has an ICBM capable of striking the American mainland.
No luck finding the cited video of the re-entry.
Unfortunately, having gotten this far, we can probably assume North Korean engineers will figure out the rest of this puzzle as well. Here’s what appears to be the official release of video of the launch by North Korea.
