On 38 North, Henri Fèron presents an analysis of North Korean tangible, i.e., visible economic activity vs the various analyses produced based on problematic statistics, and comes to a disquieting conclusion:
A Pyongyang full of shiny, new buildings belies the assumption that the North Korean economy is about to collapse under the weight of sanctions. While there are some valid concerns about the sturdiness of these mushrooming high-rise buildings, there are too many of them and they are too central to Kim Jong Un’s propaganda to dismiss them all as shells like the Ryugyong Hotel [a failed development from the post-Soviet era]. Unlike his grandfather, who drew his legitimacy from military achievements, and his father, who drew it from direct connection with the national founder, Kim Jong Un depends much more on his governing performance and popular approval for legitimacy. It should be no surprise then that he focuses on highly visible signs of improving livelihoods, such as prestigious residential complexes. These developments appear to have been enabled by an improved economy, fueled in part by Chinese aid and trade, as well as the reallocation of conventional defense spending. If this interpretation of economic resurgence proves correct, then Pyongyang’s construction boom will be one more reason to doubt the effectiveness of current sanctions.
So we’re faced with the prospect of testing a ruling Republican party, full of aggressive second- and third- raters, with a North Korea which may be finding its stride both economically and militarily. Does the GOP have any concept of managing a problem over the long term, much as we did the Cold War, or will they childishly demand instant solutions?
I don’t know if I want to stay tuned for this one, given their remarkable reactions to the Iran Nuclear deal.
