On 38 North, Leon Sigal comments on the recent South Korean summit in Washington and the overall situation concerning North Korea. I found this of interest:
Meanwhile, North Korea has continued to launch ballistic missiles and to test-fire rocket engines. Pressure alone will not compel it to stop without giving it something in return, most likely a scaling back of joint US-ROK military exercises. It is utterly unrealistic to think that the North can be compelled to suspend arming up without having some of its security concerns satisfied.
Indeed, Washington has adjusted the intensity and scope of joint exercises over time to the perceived threat from North Korea. It beefed up the size and intensity of joint exercises after the 2010 sinking of a South Korean navy corvette, the Cheonan, and resumed flying nuclear-capable B-52s into Korean airspace only after the North conducted nuclear tests. In a subtle response to the North’s recent restraint on testing, however, it substituted B-1s, which are not wired for nuclear delivery, for the B-52s in recent flights.
Indications are that a suspension of North Korean missile and nuclear testing and fissile material production may yet prove negotiable. Moving beyond a suspension to dismantle the North’s nuclear and missile programs will take much more of an effort. Past attempts at denuclearization foundered when Washington proved hesitant to move toward full political and economic normalization and Pyongyang resumed arming.
So how will the North Koreans respond to a subtle change such as flying B-1s rather than B-52s? The ICBM launch makes me wonder if that’s a return remark in the dialog – or an exclamation point. Defense Secretary Mattis put his best face forward on the subject, as noted by ABC News:
He repeatedly said that the Trump administration will use diplomacy first in dealing with North Korea’s new ICBM capability. Though he noted that the U.S. military stands ready “to provide options if they’re necessary, but this is purely diplomatically led, with economic sanctions and buttressed by the military position, that we’re taking right now.”
Asked about such diplomatic efforts, which have so far proved unsuccessful in containing North Korea’s missile program, Mattis referred to comments made yesterday by Gen. Vince Brooks, the commander of U.S. troops in South Korea.
“Diplomacy has not failed,” Mattis said. “As Gen. Brooks said it so well, it is our self-restraint that has prevented war in the face of provocations.”
“As [Winston] Churchill put it, it’s better to jaw-jaw than war-war,” said Mattis.
Supposedly, US and South Korean forces responded with missile fire into the sea off North Korea’s coast. Perhaps a couple of missiles should hit a beach. We can call it a test.
