The chatter of late has been the fate of the GOP Senate’s health bill, which Senate President is reportedly determined to pass before July 4. Even as I type this, the Congressional Budget Office has released its scoring. Via CNN/Money:
The Senate Republican health care bill would leave 22 million fewer Americans with health insurance by 2026 than under Obamacare, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Monday.
The highly anticipated score answers key questions about the impact of the Senate’s controversial legislation made public last Thursday. The analysis also offers clarity to wavering Senate Republicans on whether to vote for the bill later this week.
The CBO also found the bill would reduce deficits by $321 billion over the next decade.
What are its chances? Steve Benen:
To be sure, every time a Senate Republican raises “concerns,” it should be taken with a grain of salt. Different members have different motivations, and many GOP lawmakers hope to extract some concessions ahead of Thursday’s vote. Don’t assume that every senator who sounds skeptical now intends to follow through with a “no” vote later this week.
That said, the chatter reflects an unsettled landscape, and even the most optimistic voices in Republican politics don’t yet believe there are 51 votes for the bill.
On [Maine Senator] Collins: Maine has not expanded Medicaid under LePage, but it has a ballot initiative to do so this November, which will probably pass.
Also, Collins is considering running for governor in 2018. And Maine is a poor state. McConnellcare is not going to be popular there.
Do not believe any prattle about Mitch McConnell “being OK with a loss.” Or about “moderate Republicans” who will vote against it. Or about conservatives who are “revolting.” Or about “desperate attempts” to hold the Republican caucus together.
Next week the CBO will release its score of the bill. They will confirm that it doesn’t increase the deficit. The Senate will debate for a day or two; pass a few minor amendments; and then pass the bill. The vote will be 51-50, with Vice President Pence breaking the tie.
If Paul Ryan is smart, he will simply bring up the Senate bill for a vote and be done with it. It will pass because everyone will understand that this is their only chance. Either vote yes, or else give up on repealing Obamacare and give Democrats a big win.
And the GOP is allergic to giving the Democrats any big wins. Julian Zelizer on CNN takes a different tack:
President Trump, who has never been particularly invested in health care policy, will be happy to drop that issue so he can go on to deregulating and cutting taxes — issues nearer and dearer to his heart. According to the New York Times, McConnell also is much more interested in tackling taxes than dealing with healthcare.
Ironically, as in 1983 with Social Security, this could create an opportunity for Trump and the GOP to strengthen the Affordable Care Act, eventually allowing them to take credit for the program if it works better.
President Trump and the GOP can say they tried to repeal Obamacare and blame obstructionist Democrats for the loss. This could be their theme on Twitter for weeks.
Everything will become a bit clearer when the Senate takes its vote. Who knows? Maybe this has been Sen. McConnell’s real play from the start — let the bill die of its own weight so that Republicans can finally start to govern.
Ezra Klein on Vox already has a handy chart showing the results of the AHCA, compared to the already operational ACA:
For those paying attention, it’s a wonder that it even comes up for a vote. Me? I’m guessing a 50-50 split in the voting, forcing VP Pence to vote for it, which he may regret come 2020. Or even 2018.
