Suzanne Maloney on Markaz gives an overview of the future of Iran with Rouhani as the re-elected President – which is not equivalent to the American Presidency:
In this respect, Rouhani faces a familiar problem. In veering left, he surely helped secure strong turnout—74 percent—and probably swayed many of those who grew disappointed with what the nuclear deal has delivered. However, he also committed himself publicly to making progress on issues where he has only the most tenuous authority and where Khatami, aided by a reformist parliament, ultimately failed to generate meaningful change.
For this reason, his second term begins with an even stiffer challenge than his first. Dashed expectations among some proportion of the public after his first administration threatened his reelection; Rouhani will have to maneuver skillfully to avoid an even more dramatic disconnect between public demands and government achievements over the next four years. At his first post-election news conference, Iranian journalists burst into applause when a questioner advised him to continue behaving as he had during the final week of the campaign.
Rouhani’s rhetoric also cut dangerously close to the bone for the legitimacy of Iran’s ruling system, which remains fixed around the absolute authority of the supreme leader. That will surely not be forgotten, particularly at a time when the prospect of succession looms large. Raisi’s loss will make his speculated elevation deeply problematic, at least if it were to happen before the end of Rouhani’s presidency in 2021. Institutions matter more than individuals in the Islamic Republic, and the primacy of the leader’s office has to be protected. At 77 years old, the timing is hardly within Khamenei’s control, but it’s worth noting that Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Iran’s original supreme leader, survived in office until the age of 86.
It’s all about stabilizing the government.
While Iranians may take pride in their democracy, it is surely a democracy deeply limited by religious requirements, not to mention institutions not susceptible to popular will. Which rings a bell here in the United States, as we think back to the summary sacking of James Comey from the FBI by President Trump. Comey’s removal shines a fiery light on the structural problems of a government which must investigate itself. The splitting of the government into pieces and even sub-pieces – as schizophrenic as that may seem to the nationalist and the outsider – is in reality the stability-inducing outriggers for the problem of corruption. The more ground corrupters must cover, the harder it is to escape the righteous indignation of those of upright character – or at least are not sharing in the booty.
Unsaid, so far, is whether the general citizenry of Iran is ready to serve without consideration for their own enrichment – I truly cannot say. I would have said that a sizable majority of Americans would be willing to do so; the wretched behavior of President Trump, his family, his staff, and the unhappy behavior of many elected GOP government officials, and, of course, those who voted for them gives me pause and wonderment as to whether we, too, are so unready to be a Republic.
