With Trump on his way to the MidEast, Netanyahu no longer awaits his coming with glee – but, in Ben Caspit’s opinion, dread.
Bennett learned something from Netanyahu in the last 2015 elections when the prime minister gobbled up a significant part of Bennett’s electorate in the final days leading up to the vote. Now Bennett is the one eating away at him on the right, drawing clear lines to distinguish himself from Netanyahu by putting indirect pressure on Trump.
In any other circumstance, Netanyahu would back away from the pied piper that is Bennett. The problem is that he is facing Trump, the orange-haired man that no one in the world wants to upset. This includes Netanyahu, who doesn’t want to end up like former FBI Director James Comey.
This sense of awe, not to mention abject fear of Trump, has left Netanyahu paralyzed. He is like a deer in the headlights, utterly unable to move. Bennett’s announcement was the electric shock that jolted Netanyahu into action and forced him to release his statement on moving the embassy to Jerusalem benefiting peace.
The drama is also playing out behind the curtains. Tillerson’s remarks implied that the Americans were expecting help from Netanyahu. In recent conversations between the concerned parties, the possibility was raised that Israel would either hint at or quietly acquiesce to reports that there are serious security consequences to moving the embassy. Doing so would allow Trump to climb down off his high horse. While Netanyahu did not explicitly confirm that he would agree to such a gesture, he did give it consideration.
The idea was shelved, however, on May 14. Netanyahu’s breaking point had been reached: He prefers the calculated disappointment of the US administration over the continued cannibalization of his right-wing voter base by Bennett. How will the Americans respond? It looks like we’ll find out in the coming days.
Zvi Bar’el in Israel’s Haaretz suggests a possible earthquake on the relations front:
A silence fell on Arab media outlets after publication of a report about the Gulf States’ plan for partial normalization with Israel. No official response by Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States or Qatar was heard. The regular pundits preferred to deal with other matters, as if they had neither heard nor seen the scoop in the Wall Street Journal. The usual government spokespeople in Israel were also apparently struck by a condition affecting the vocal chords.
When similar reports emerged in the past, official spokesmen, Arab and Israeli alike, would quickly issue a denial. But this time there were no denials either. That suggests that there is a solid foundation to the principles of the proposal – at least between Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the United States.
On Tuesday, the last details were apparently hammered out between the U.A.E.’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and U.S. President Donald Trump in their meeting in Washington after Trump’s earlier meeting with Mohammed bin Salman, the 31-year-old son of the Saudi king and the de facto ruler of the kingdom.
The three anchors of the new agreement rest on the granting of permits to Israeli businesses to open branches in the Gulf States, for Israeli aircraft to fly through U.A.E. airspace, and for the installation of direct telephone lines between the two countries. This is still not the full normalization that was promised in the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative or its detailed ratification at the Arab summit in April in Jordan.
The Times Of Israel is on a similar tact:
“The Arabs clearly want to engage Trump in the region, to have him be an active player against Iranian encroachment,” he said.
“So they have chosen a very upbeat approach and Abbas is clearly joining that kind of Arab bandwagon.”
Egypt and Jordan have reached out to Abbas since his White House invitation, which also reassured his Palestinian supporters that his Fatah movement still has powerful international friends.
If Arab governments want to work with Washington, and more covertly with Israel, to counter Iran and the Islamic State, they may engage with efforts to break the logjam in the peace process.
“But between having an upbeat tone and having a grand breakthrough — there’s a distance between those two ideas.” Makovsky admitted.
Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute and longtime expert in the peace process, agreed the Washington visit had boosted Abbas’ confidence.
“It’s a remarkable turnaround for him. It’s a lifesaver. It’s a shot of adrenaline to an ailing patient,” he told AFP, adding that Trump had put the “Palestinian issue” back on the table.
A normalization of relations would certainly irritate the author of this piece in the Tehran Times:
Notwithstanding what was said about Muslims during the election campaign, though, Trump is warming up to certain leaders in the region. Government-to-government interactions have been cordial and there are a number of ongoing economic negotiations between the U.S. and countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. Moreover, the improved cooperation between Israel, certain Arab states and the U.S. against Iran has added to the regional political complications.
The fear amongst many in the Middle East is that such cooperation will normalize relations with Israel despite its continued violations of human rights and military occupation of Palestine. This is an important issue that Trump’s meeting with Arab leaders in Riyadh needs to address. What’s more, the U.S. president should also explain how Arab and Muslim leaders are expected to respond to the anti-Muslim rhetoric in America. How can they address Trump’s support for right-wing politicians in Europe who have heightened anti Muslim sentiments across the continent? Trump’s presidential campaign utilized a number of anti-Muslim stances, so his visit to Saudi Arabia presents an opportunity for him to rebuild the trust that has been shattered.
I don’t have any particular expectations of this trip, but suppose he did put together some sort of landmark deal – would that be good enough to negate his disasters at home?
