The dust settles in Kansas, as Republican Ron Estes defeats Democrat James Thompson in the 4th district in the race to replace Mike Pompeo, now the CIA Director, in the US House of Representatives. It’s interesting to read the spins on this. First, President Trump via the Kansas City Star:
President Donald Trump congratulated Kansas’ newest congressman Wednesday morning, but also misstated information about the unusually close special election in the Wichita region.
“Great win in Kansas last night for Ron Estes, easily winning the Congressional race against the Dems, who spent heavily & predicted victory!” Trump tweeted Wednesday morning after Republican Ron Estes beat Democrat James Thompson by 7 percentage points in a district that Republicans won by more than 30 points in November.Estes, the Kansas state treasurer, will replace Mike Pompeo, who gave up his seat in the 4th congressional district in January to serve as Trump’s CIA director.
Neither the state, nor national Democratic Party predicted a victory in the race at any point. However, Thompson was quoted in some outlets as saying that his campaign was winning during the final days of the campaign.
Contrary to Trump’s tweet, Democrats did not spend heavily on the race.
From the progressive wing of the Democrats is David Nir on The Daily Kos:
In an extraordinary political earthquake, Kansas Republicans held on to a dark red House seat in the Wichita area night by just a single-digit margin on Tuesday night, throwing into question whether the GOP’s majority can survive next year’s midterm elections.
Republican Ron Estes, the state treasurer, had been universally expected to easily win the special election in Kansas’ 4th District to replace Mike Pompeo, who left to become Donald Trump’s CIA director earlier this year. But instead, Estes found himself struggling in a district that Trump carried by a dominant 60-33 margin and Pompeo won by more than 30 points last year.
I suppose at this point, President Trump’s followers are just hoping we should just accept he lies about everything, but it remains unacceptable.
Therefore, I request and require President Trump retract the lies embedded in his communication congratulating Ron Estes and promise never to do that again.
So how does Republican dominance look in the 4th district? This gives me a chance to play with a charting tool:
Data Source: Ballotpedia
While a 7 percentage point loss actually sounds like a lot, compared to the tighter races we’ve seen of late for President, the chart does clearly indicate a change in the mood of K4 voters, especially over a 5 month period. Will this continue?
I think it’ll depend on three factors. The two obvious factors are President Trump and the GOP. The former has been flip-flopping on his radical positions, and of late some of his positions approach reasonableness – although I suspect this is only random chance, as one White House faction or another gets his ear – or which world leader he talks to next. He may be the least important factor in the 2018 race for Kansas 4th.
The GOP, on the other hand, have been a consistent bunch – advocates of extreme positions, users of highly dubious reasoning, and vessels of damaged ethics, if we’re to judge from the current Administration nominees’ behaviors. Attempted revocation of the ACA damaged the GOP brand, yet they have returned to talking about the same action – acting as if the electorate was four-square behind them, which is not true.
That and a number of early missteps symptomatic of a party drifting well out of the American mainstream may damage their chances in K4.
But the biggest factor may be … Estes himself. I know very little about him, so I can’t guess how he’ll perform in the House of Representatives – will be be relatively independent, thus isolating himself from the more damaging effects of the GOP behavior patterns, but also from influence? Or will he be another yes-man, and thus vulnerable if the GOP manages to misread the situation completely and disappoint the Independents who hold the key to the next election?
Thompson, the loser on Tuesday, has stated he will run again. The time to start is now – to borrow the mildly loathesome phrase from the private sector, it’s time to build your brand. More accurately, now is the time to formulate positions and show why they are preferable for K4 residents – and point out how it’s conservative ideology wrecking the formerly great State of Kansas.
[EDIT Fixed typo 10/30/2017]
