Bruce Riedel on AL Monitor opines on how the recent United States missile strike on Syria affects the spirits of the Saudis:
The cruise missile strikes should give the Saudis more confidence that the Trump administration is competent, capable and even decisive. But it will also raise expectations. The royal family will expect an American strategy to get rid of Assad sooner rather than later. More military strikes against Syrian regime targets and the Iranians are what the Saudis want to see. The Russian presence is a complicating factor, but in Riyadh’s eyes it should not give Moscow a veto over steadily more aggressive attacks on Assad’s forces, the Iranians and Hezbollah. More arms for the opposition is a priority for the Saudis. …
If the cruise missile attack is a one-off and not followed by more aggressive American military action, Riyadh will be bitterly disappointed. It will still cooperate on confronting Iran in the Gulf and in Yemen, but its high hopes that someday, somehow, America will rid Syria of Assad will be again crushed. If the administration is loose in its rhetoric about how far it is prepared to go in Syria in getting Assad out, its words will come home to haunt the relationship with the kingdom.
The Saudis will have to actively encourage the Trump Administration if they want the Administration to continue their aggressive strategy, because the Bannon/Trump approach to staffing the government is fatal to a conventional diplomatic approach to pressuring an American administration to take some action. Let’s face it – when we say Obama did this, or Trump did that, or Bush did this other thing, what we really mean is that the President sets a policy, a direction, and then his appointees, using the powers inherent in their various positions, try to carry it out.
Trump’s appointees, by and large, are non-existent or incompetent. The main driver of an effort like this would be the Secretary of State, but by all accounts the current occupant of the position, Rex Tillerson, is ignorant of the powers of his position, and really quite somnolent.
If the Saudis want Trump to do more about Syria’s current government, they had better be prepared to ride him. To buy air-time on Fox News, perhaps, filled with stories about the machinations of Syria’s leader Assad. Get Trump’s attention on Twitter, perhaps.
Buy Nordstrom‘s and reinstall Ivanka’s retail line.
Because Trump is really ADD, I think. Whatever has his attention at the moment will receive action. And if it’s out of his visual range, chances are no one in his Administration will pay attention, either. They’re too busy engaging in factionalism.
And that won’t serve the Saudis’ interests.
