To the extent that it matters, the American public continues to disapprove of the Trump team’s efforts:
Today’s Gallup approval rating of 35% is a new Administration low, and the disapproval rating of 59% is a new high. I’m going to assume that somewhere around 30% will be the floor for Trump, based on party loyalty – that is, Republicans who put party above country. And that’s absent a major scandal – such as being caught in a treasonous relationship with Russia.
But such a dismal lack of confidence in the President seems unlikely to actually lead to his removal from office; there is no provision for a popular recall of the President – and probably just as well. The volatility of public opinion should not translate directly to public action; there should be a buffer at the very least.
And for that reason the House can bring a case for impeachment, and the trial takes place in the Senator, as the House represents more immediate public opinion than does the Senate, which represents measured opinion, as it is most insulated from public opinion by its six year terms.
All that said, the tendency of Party loyalty to outweigh Country loyalty may make it unlikely we’ll see Trump’s removal; however, if we do reach my hypothetical floor, or even tunnel below it, the GOP may pay a price in a year and a half at mid-terms, when the Democrats will surely remind voters of the GOP listlessness in the face of Trump incompetency, along with other missteps such as the rebuffed replacement of the ACA (possibly still ongoing, although if Ryan were to fail twice – and I think the odds of success are poor due to the psychodynamics of the Party – he’d probably have to resign the Speakership), attempts to sell public land (Representative Chaffetz has already burned his fingers on that one), and upcoming opportunities to fail.
For those reasons, all upcoming special elections, both local and national, are drawing attention from pundits. Readers may remember Jon Ossoff, running for a very red Congressional House seat in Georgia, formerly held by Tom Price. Ballotpedia lists 4 more, replacing Ryan Zinke (Montana’s lone Representative), Xavier Becerra (California’s 34th district), Mike Pompeo (Kansas’ 4th), and Mick Mulvaney (South Carolina’s 5th); those wondering about Jeff Sessions, the former Senator and now Attorney General, should be informed that he was replaced by appointment by the former basketball player, Luther Strange. Results may be paramount, but margins of victory will also be of close interest – if Jon Ossoff, for example, fails, if he only loses by a cat’s whisker, there’ll be a lot of worry among GOPers.
It’d be interesting to have a measure of the public’s political quotient, its awareness of the business of government – and to see if the hijinks in the White House, as reported by the free press, has caused the quotient to rise.
