David Sanger on 38 North surveys the new Secretary of State Tillerson’s words during his trip to visit China and his comments regarding North Korea. Here’s the second point, which is somewhat disconcerting:
The second point Tillerson made in public, again as reflected in the lede of the story, is that “the first time that the Trump administration might be forced to take pre-emptive action ‘if they elevate the threat of their weapons program’ to an unacceptable level.”
Think about that one for a moment. If one takes the Secretary literally, the North would not need to conduct an ICBM test to prompt American action. Such action—in whatever form it took—could be prompted merely by the North’s leaders merely staying on the course they are on. Is this an empty threat? Maybe. It’s a new administration, with all new players. We don’t know. So all we can do is report what they say.
Far be it from me to prescribe a course of action when it comes to the North Koreans. But if this makes me nervous, how do the North Koreans feel? Or is Mr. Kim so certain that Trump is just a blowhard that he’ll ignore these words and continue onwards? I’ve noticed a lot of belligerents (Saddam Hussein comes to mind, as do generations of Soviet leaders) will trash-talk their opponents so hard for so long that they come to believe their own words – and when the riposte is finally delivered, they are shocked at the forcefulness, reduced to humiliating scrambling or dying. Is Mr. Kim making this mistake?
