In fencing, a highly experienced and rated fencer fencing a novice does not have an assured outcome, because the experienced fencer tends to expect his or her opponents to select from a known set of responses, and if the novice is too inexperienced to use any from that set, but does something right out of left field, well, sometimes even a highly experienced fencer will get caught a few times – sometimes enough to lose a bout. I call such novices ‘random motion machines’ and fear them.
It’s beginning to look the same in Israel. Netanyahu may have years of experience, but Trump is the random motion machine. The settlements in Amona are being evacuated – grudgingly – but a bill to compensate the illegal settlers isn’t working out as expected, as reported by Ben Caspit of AL Monitor:
Officials in the Israeli defense system recommend not to try to establish facts on the ground — namely construct new West Bank settlements — before full coordination is attained with the new administration in Washington. Netanyahu’s emissaries who have met with the Trump administration’s top brass several times are still unable to put their finger on the new president’s policies. It is altogether likely that the president himself has not finished consolidating his policies with regard to the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians. Netanyahu is trying to maneuver between all these opposing forces and hold the stick at both ends, while investing great efforts in trying to understand the new rules that President Donald Trump will lay out for him.
The bill was supposed to have passed its second and third readings in the Knesset and become Israeli law last week — simultaneously with the evacuation of the illegal outpost of Amona. On the evening of Jan. 28, Netanyahu announced that the law would be passed “on Monday.” Then, on Monday he promised it “will pass this week,” but the week went by and on the morning of Feb. 5 he was still throwing out hints that he intended to make the push and pass the bill into law on Feb. 6. But then he reconsidered and said that it was preferable to wait for coordination with the Trump administration. He said that he wanted to talk with Israel Ambassador to the United States Ron Dermer, so that the latter could coordinate the process with the administration.
Opposite him were the members of HaBayit HaYehudi who did not blink when hearing Netanyahu’s words Feb. 5. Associates of Bennett and Shaked said that the coalition would be in danger if the law was not passed this week. And Netanyahu, who from an airplane ramp just prior to taking off for a quick visit to London, said, “I hear fake ultimata all the time. It doesn’t move me.”
And the unexpected from the supposedly pro-Israel Trump?
The euphoria that filled Jerusalem after Trump’s election was replaced by tense anticipation. The White House announcement last week, which criticized the Israeli statement about building thousands of housing units in the territories, set off warning bells in the prime minister’s office — even though the criticism was toned down. True, the Americans noted in the announcement that “we don’t believe the existence of settlements is an impediment to peace” — a phrase that constitutes a dramatic policy change compared to all the preceding US administrations. But the announcement ended by saying that new construction in the territories may harm chances for peace. This was a surprise that no one in Jerusalem had anticipated.
Welcome to our world, Mr. Prime Minister. He may be all that you could ask for – but getting to the promised land may take far more effort than you expected.
