I was hasty in my last post. Lawfare’s Chris Mirasola has provided a crisp history of the uncomfortable China/Taiwan/American relationship, and then a quick analysis:
The President-elect’s personal financial interests further muddies the situation. According to the Shanghaiist, the Trump Organization was considering a deal to build luxury hotels in Taiwan as recently as this past September. It is unclear how far this deal has progressed, though a local mayor has said that the project is still speculative.
What will this all mean for Sino-American relations? As Bolton recognized, “Beijing’s leaders would be appalled by this approach.” He is likely correct. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Geng Shuang, speaking before the phone conversation, condemnedproposed US-Taiwan military exchanges and “urge[d] the US to abide by the one China policy” and “avoid backsliding and damaging the larger interests of China-US relations.” President Xi Jinping has been particularly direct about Taiwan’s political status. After Tsai Ying-wen’s election President Xi reiterated Beijing’s strong opposition to Taiwan separatism, asserting that, “the more than 1.3 billion Chinese people and the whole country will not tolerate secessionist activities by any person, at any time and in any form.” Xi has also signaled that he may be more aggressive than past administrations in bringing Taiwan under Beijing’s control. He told former Taiwanese Vice President Vincent Siew, for example, that, “political disagreements that exist between the two sides must reach a final resolution . . . and these issues cannot be passed on from generation to generation.”
If this phone call is indeed a first step in a plan to bolster Taiwanese sovereignty, the President-elect may find himself confronting a particularly vociferous, and increasingly powerful, opponent in President Xi Jinping.
I fear the business world has not prepared Mr. Trump for his new position. Perhaps the neocons will cheer on direct action such as this (although it appears Bolton is taken aback), but the risks are comparable to a bull in a … sorry.
Still, such an analysis as my off-the-cuff makes variables into constants, always an intellectual error. In this case, the variable taken to be a constant is the Chinese leadership and their response profile. They are now faced with a baffling situation, an American President who may not even realize the affront he is giving. Given our military capabilities, do they respond with strength, or with subtlety? We would assume a Cold War with another President, but such a War would damage all parties, and the Chinese leader’s are fools if they think their position is assured. The Chinese are starting to taste a bit of sufficiency, even affluence – if that’s taken away by a world-wide recession in which the Chinese leadership is seen to have a role, revolt might be in the cards.
The Chinese, upon examination of the situation, may consider simply protesting his behavior as a matter of saving face, while privately agreeing to suck it up for four years, hoping more reasonable actors may take over the American government. This is how they may be a variable.
This all makes me wonder if the next Presidential election will be an international cyber struggle in which the Russians and the Chinese vie for control of the American voter. At the moment, it would appear the Chinese might prefer an experienced American politician of Clinton’s caliber, while the Russians prefer the chaos and incompetence of Trump.
