Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight comments on the race as of today – and how the email scandal may be impacting the polls. It all seems to hinge on North Carolina:
Florida is a well-polled state, and Clinton remains slightly ahead in the polling average there, with a lead of about 1 percentage point overall in our forecast. But Florida is now somewhat less likely to jump its position in the queue and save Clinton if she has last-minute problems elsewhere on the map, such as in Pennsylvania or Michigan. By contrast, two new polls of North Carolina showed Clinton with leads of 3 and 6 points, a problem for Trump given that Clinton has a substantial lead based on early voting in the state. …
OK, this is getting far into the weeds. Obviously, Trump doesn’t have an easy path forward if he loses North Carolina. The point is really just this: Despite the recent tightening, Clinton has a fairly significant lead in the polls of about 5 percentage points. So in order to win, Trump needs a further shift because of Comey or some other news — or he needs the polls to have been off the mark to begin with. In the event of a last-minute shift or a significant polling error, the order of the swing states could easily be scrambled, such that Clinton wins North Carolina while losing Pennsylvania or Michigan, for example. With the race in a somewhat dynamic state as we enter the final full week of the campaign, we encourage you to think broadly about how the Electoral College might play out instead of fixating on just a few scenarios.
Obviously, early voting is having an impact on campaign strategies. Early voters can retract their votes, but that requires additional effort, so if you have an ‘October surprise’ up your sleeve – when do you let it loose? To impact the early voters so they don’t have to retract their votes? But if your surprise doesn’t have staying power, then that may be a failed strategy. Two October surprises? That can be hard to find – or fake up.
