I commented just a few days ago that the beginning of the end for Speaker Ryan had commenced – but my head’s spinning at this report on how quickly Trump supporters (distinguished from the more general GOP voter) have turned on the far right wing Speaker. From YouGov.com:
House Speaker Paul Ryan distanced himself from Trump after the “Access Hollywood” video was broadcast. Trump voters don’t approve. They think it was wrong for GOP leaders to withdraw their support. And they definitely don’t like Ryan (or his Senate counterpart, Mitch McConnell). Trump supporters are more than twice as likely to view Ryan unfavorably as favorably, and are even more negative e towards McConnell.
So what happens post-election? If the GOP majority is overturned then we return, I suppose, to Representative Pelosi as the Speaker. But if the GOP retains control of the House, it’ll be a diminished majority. The primary question will be the composition, even survival of the Freedom Caucus. Will they still hold the balance of power? If so, I would think they’d be in the thrall of the Trump supporters, disappointed or not – and they’ll call for Ryan’s ouster. (I am assuming Ryan will win re-election, as I hear he’s popular in his district.) Then we’ll see a battle for the speakership featuring anyone with a lust for power and a GOP membership – and I have no idea who’ll win. But most likely they won’t have the gene for compromise with the other side – or even with those in their own party, possibly.
So we may once again see a frozen House.
And I give a small chance that the GOP will retain a majority, but some portion of that GOP majority will caucus with the Democrats as they try to drag the GOP out of its hellhole of insanity. It’s barely possible we’ll see Pelosi as a Speaker of a GOP-majority House.
(h/t Steve Benen @ MaddowBlog)
