Iranian Presidential elections are coming up, spurring speculation that President Rouhani may not receive a second term. Chief amongst his problems? The Great Satan, of course, from Saeid Jafari in AL Monitor:
Speaking about the nuclear deal, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Aug. 1, “Was it not agreed that the unjust sanctions be lifted to have [positive] effects on people’s lives? Is any tangible impact seen on people’s lives after six months?”
Day by day, it appears that Khamenei’s viewpoint is gaining more and more momentum across Iran. Rouhani’s critics are continuously asking why the sanctions have not been lifted in effect. Parliamentarian Mohammad Soleimani, who served as minister of communication and information technology under Ahmadinejad, has said, “The government must explain to the people why sanctions and threats have not been removed and are becoming more intense every day.” On a similar note, in an interview on Iranian state television, Mehdi Mohammadi, a member of the team of former chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, said, “None of the big European banks will work with us. They have zero dealings with us. At the moment, no dollar transaction is being conducted with Iran, and this has created problems in all of our business dealings.”
Whether this is a problem or not is yet to be seen.
But to what extent are these sentiments shared among the Iranian public? [Saeed] Laylaz, the [Iranian] economist, said, “Very little. The Iranian people, in the [Feb. 26] parliamentary elections, once again voted in favor of Rouhani’s discourse. This shows that they are content with his management. Therefore, the opposition’s criticism of the nuclear deal and its economic achievements is not serious.”
However, anecdotal evidence suggests otherwise, and especially among the lower classes. Phrases such as “Rouhani hasn’t been able to do anything either” or “the nuclear deal has had no effect on people’s livelihoods” are quite common among the Iranian public these days.
Who will the conservative hard line opposition run? Former President Ahmadinejad doesn’t appear to have the kind of support required, not least because he reportedly offended Supreme Leader Khamenei during his term in office. And will enough of the public cotton to a hard line candidate to defeat Rouhani? What’s worse, apparently ineffectual or someone with terrifyingly conservative views?
