Adding to the swirl of Saudi Arabian politics are concerns about the impending American Presidential election, as Bruce Riedel reports in AL Monitor:
Trump is a scary unknown for the Saudis. His vitriolic anti-Muslim rhetoric and tough talk about countries that preach radical Islam is seen as a threat. They noticed that in his foreign policy speech last week, Saudi Arabia was not included in the list of friends of America (Trump listed Israel, Egypt and Jordan but none of the Gulf states). He did talk about how poor Saudi visa vetting let al-Qaeda extremists into the United States before 9/11.
Trump promises to tear up the Iran deal but he seems to be in cahoots with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He has no foreign policy experience and his advisers aren’t known for their expertise on the Gulf. Trump has also said that the United States should have kept Iraq’s oil wealth after the 2003 invasion, a very alarming precedent for the kingdom.
Clinton, as secretary of state, is a well-known figure in Riyadh. The Saudis are much more comfortable with her and her advisers, and have a long history with the Clintons. They were extremely disappointed that Bill didn’t press Israel harder and tougher in 2000 to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict when they thought he would. Instead, he blamed the Palestinians.
Clinton sought to advance political reform in Bahrain during the Arab Spring, which helped prompt the Saudi intervention on the island. She was part of the Obama team that dumped Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. She backed the Iran deal. Riyadh expects a Clinton White House to be a continuation of Obama, whom they soured on years ago. Continuity is not what the Saudis are hoping for in US policy.
So the Saudi royal family is rather gloomy – neither candidate looks sympathetic to their concerns. Which are …
Riyadh sees the ever closer relations between Iran, Russia, Syria, Hezbollah and Shiite Iraqis as a fundamental shift in the strategic environment in the Middle East. One Saudi commentator with close connections to the royal family labeled the Russian deployment a strategic “shock” that demonstrates how badly the United States underestimated Iranian and Russian aggressive intentions.
The Saudis always feared the Iran nuclear deal would end Tehran’s pariah status and give it more strategic options. Saudi efforts to buy off Moscow have been a failure. …
Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir is a veteran America watcher. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef is the most pro-American prince since King Fahd. As defense minister, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has sought to reassure Washington that he is ready for prime time despite his inexperience. Riyadh has bought over $110 billion in arms from Obama. But there is no confidence in the Saudi leadership about the future of American leadership. Meanwhile, Putin and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are growing closer. Saudi paranoia about Iran is exaggerated but nonetheless a reality unlikely to change.
