Bernie finally chooses the strategic moment to endorse his rival:
In terms of the presidential election this November, there is no doubt that the election of Donald Trump as president would be a devastating blow to all that we are fighting for. His openly bigoted and pro-billionaire campaign could precipitate the same decades-long rightward shift in American politics that happened after the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980. That rightward shift after Reagan’s election infected not just politics as a whole but led to the ascendancy of the corporatist wing of the Democratic Party — an era from which we are still recovering.
I cannot in good conscience let that happen.
To have all of the work we have done in elevating our progressive ideals be dashed away by a complete Republican takeover of Washington — a takeover headed by a candidate that demonizes Latinos, Muslims, women, African Americans, veterans, and others — would be unthinkable.
Today, I endorsed Hillary Clinton to be our next president. I know that some of you will be disappointed with that decision. But I believe that, at this moment, our country, our values, and our common vision for a transformed America, are best served by the defeat of Donald Trump and the election of Hillary Clinton.
While Steve Benen had complained about Sanders’ deliberate approach to endorsing Hillary, I think Sanders was displaying respect for his followers, not only by successfully pressuring the Democrats into adding many of his positions into the official party platform, but by showing his voters that Hillary is deserving of their support. If I’m to believe the commentary on the Daily Kos, there’s a lot of disappointment at Bernie’s second place finish as well as distrust for Secretary Clinton, and it was important for Sanders to persuade them that she shares at least some of the most important positions. While Benen clearly wishes Trump to lose, it’s not important that Clinton lead the polls at this time – only at the end. For what it’s worth (no doubt quite a lot), the inestimable Nate Silver believes Clinton is in a commanding position, currently with a 66% chance of victory. From another article:
Historically, high numbers of undecided voters contribute to uncertainty and volatility. So do third-party candidates, whose numbers sometimes fade down the stretch run.6 With Clinton at only 43 percent nationally, Trump doesn’t need to take away any of her voters to win. He just needs to consolidate most of the voters who haven’t committed to a candidate yet.
By the same token, there’s the possibility of a landslide against Trump, whose floor is unusually low given that he’s getting only 36 percent of the vote now. Polls-only gives Clinton a 35 percent chance of winning by double digits nationally,7 which would make her the first candidate to do so since Ronald Reagan in 1984 (and the first Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964).
A 20 percent or 25 percent chance of Trump winning is an awfully long way from 2 percent, or 0.02 percent. It’s a real chance: about the same chancethat the visiting team has when it trails by a run in the top of the eighth inning in a Major League Baseball game. If you’ve been following politics or sports over the past couple of years, I hope it’s been imprinted onto your brain that those purported long shots — sometimes much longer shots than Trump — sometimes come through.
But the polls establish Clinton as a fairly clear favorite. And in contrast to almost everything else this election cycle, the polls have mostly been right so far.
