Some of those opposed to the deal may have feared the instant enrichment of Iran, but, much to President Rouhani’s discomfort, this does not appear to be happening. Arash Karami reports in AL Monitor:
… many Iranians are still not feeling the economic benefits of the lifting of sanctions. With presidential elections less than a year away, officials from the administration of President Hassan Rouhani are in the uncomfortable position of having to continue to sell the benefits of the deal to an Iranian public that is increasingly distrustful of US intentions to hold up its end of the agreement.
Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi, a top nuclear negotiator who now heads the staff overseeing implementation of the nuclear deal, sat down with Iranian television July 11 to update the public on the status of the deal.
Ongoing US sanctions on Iran that prohibit international investors from using the dollar for transactions with it are one of the main obstacles keeping Iran from taking advantage of the nuclear deal and international sanctions relief. These banking sanctions have created reservations among many foreign companies eager to do business with Iran. Aragchi explained that they are primary sanctions — that is, ones unrelated to the nuclear deal.
So it appears that if more sanctions are to be lifted, the more Iranian behavior must change. A convenient lever, it seems to me.
To some small extent, that puts some influence over the Iranian elections in the hands of the international community as well – the US chief amongst them. While I’m sure some relish the thought, for others having to decide how to manipulate the sanctions may seem a little devilish. Do you prefer Rouhani? Or would you prefer another relatively liberal cleric? Or take a chance on the conservative challenger?
Of course, Iran also pursues other avenues of relief, as noted in the Tehran Times (but apparently published first in the Huffington Post):
However, now that the JCPOA has been implemented, Iran has yet to derive the expected benefits from sanctions relief. As Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said: “They [the United States] write on paper that banks can cooperate with Iran, but in practice they promote Iranophobia so that no one trades with Iran. American officials say that sanctions are still in place so that foreign investors get scared and do not come.”
Indeed, fearful of existing non-nuclear sanctions and the prospect of new sanctions, international banks and corporations with U.S.-based operations have been fearful of trading with or investing in Iran. Major European banks have in the past paid billions in fines due to supposed Iran sanctions violations. As a consequence, Iran has not been able to receive expected foreign investment or have international banks facilitate the business agreements it has signed since the JCPOA’s implementation.
To which the US responds, as AP: The Big Story reports:
U.S. officials have said repeatedly that the sanctions have been eased and that Iran’s complaints are due to foreign firms’ wariness to do business with the country for other reasons, including ballistic missile testing, support for Syria’s government and anti-Israel groups, and poor banking regulations.
Kerry told reporters he has repeatedly explained to the Iranians that there are limits on what the United States can do to encourage businesses to deal with Iran and said he thought “the supreme leader and Foreign Minister Zarif are pressing to make sure” Iran gets what it is entitled to under the deal “as rapidly as possible.”
To that end, he said he believed there were areas where the U.S. could do more to show it is a good faith negotiating partner.
“I think there are places where the United States could give confidence where there is doubt,” Kerry said. “And, I feel that it is important for us if we’re going to have future dealings (with Iran) or we want to have a reputation for good faith in negotiations we conduct anywhere. It’s important for us to show good faith in executing this agreement and I intend to see to it that we do that.”
