Iran appears to be making progress in the nuclear arms protocol signed with the Western powers, reports the Arms Control Association using information from the Institute for Science and International Security in mid November:
According to the Nov. 18 International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) quarterly report, Iran has dismantled 4,530 centrifuges since the July 14 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was adopted last month.
Action by Iran to fulfill its commitments under the agreement is a positive sign. Completing the dismantlement of 1/3 of the ~13,500 centrifuges that must be removed under the terms of the deal is tangible evidence that the agreement is working to stringently restrict Iran’s nuclear program. …
However, Iran has considerable work left to do before it receives sanctions relief under the agreement—for example Iran as yet to decrease the numbers of centrifuges enriching uranium to the 5,060 permitted under the deal. If Iran continues at last month’s rate of dismantlement, it will take an additional six weeks to dismantle the first generation IR-1s and over 3 months to dismantle the IR-2Ms. The IAEA will need to certify that Iran has completed all of its commitments in other areas of its nuclear program.
Michael Singh of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Simond de Galbert, a French diplomat, are not entirely happy with progress:
A recent International Atomic Energy Agency report confirmed what the U.S. and its allies have long maintained: that, contrary to its denials, Iran had an organized nuclear weapons program until 2003 and continued elements of this work through at least 2009.
This revelation was not unexpected; Western officials have long accused Iran of seeking nuclear weapons. The Obama administration and its allies intend to move ahead with implementation of the deal on Iran’s nuclear program, having pledged in the agreement that Iran did not have to disclose its past nuclear weapons’ work or fully cooperate with the IAEA investigation to receive sanctions relief. …
By protecting its nuclear secrets, accepting only temporary constraints on fuel-cycle work, and advancing its missile program, Iran is keeping its nuclear options open for the future.
The National Iranian American Council has some insight into Iranian leadership motivations:
If Iran continues at its present pace, some experts predict that Iran could finish its work by early to mid-January, enabling the relief of sanctions before February 26 elections for Iran’s next parliament and Assembly of Experts — the body that appoints the country’s Supreme Leader. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and other moderates will want to move quickly in order to point to the lifting of sanctions prior to the February elections, a key electoral promise that helped sweep Rouhani into office in 2013. Even if it takes the Iranian economy more time to reap the benefits of relief, such a key step would be an important symbolic victory that could provide a boost for moderates at the polls. However, Iranian hardliners are unlikely to sit still with moderates poised to gain an advantage in elections that will help determine the direction of Iran for years to come. Already, hardliners have overseen an internal crackdown and sought to throw up roadblocks to stall the lifting of sanctions until after the elections.
Steve Benen @ MaddowBlog is positive:
The New York Times’ Jonathan Weisman noted that as recently as a year ago, many officials – inside the Obama administration and out – believed Iran would never actually part with its nuclear fuel. And yet, yesterday, that’s exactly what happened. …
As of yesterday, that first major benchmark is cleared, and as the Times added, for the first time in nearly a decade, Iran now appears to have “too little fuel to manufacture a nuclear weapon,” even if it wanted to.
The first baby steps towards another victory for President Obama? An ongoing drama.
