Prior to the recent Paris summit on climate change, NewScientist (28 November 2015, paywall) covered the topic from the optimist and pessimist viewpoints. So, despite the positive publicity generated by the closing of the talks last week, here’s the pessimist viewpoint:
Global temperatures could rise 4 °C even if the Paris Protocol is wildly successful
By failing to cut emissions, we are taking a huge gamble. Even if we somehow stick to the target budget of 1000 gigatonnes of CO2, computer models suggest the resulting warming in 2100 could range from 1.3 °C to 3.9 °C – and keep climbing to 6 °C by 2200 in the worst case. And the models could be underestimating the range of outcomes because they do not fully factor in all the sources of feedback that could cause warming.
So when you read about limiting warming to 2 °C, remember this is far from guaranteed: it is just the most likely out of a range of possible outcomes. Worse still, it now seems certain that we will bust the carbon budget, and many scientists think plan B – sucking lots of CO2 out of the atmosphere – will prove impossible. Maybe we’ll get lucky, but some very scary scenarios cannot be ruled out.
It’s certainly a little sobering. Even more sobering has been the drop in car fuel prices over the last year as the United States and Saudi Arabia pump more fuel oil, possibly as a means to attack enemies (USA vs Russia, Saudi Arabia vs Venezuela):
(Courtesy AAA)
And how much of greenhouse gas emissions are from vehicles? In the U.S., back in 2013, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said 27%:
I worry that lower gas prices lessens demand for electric vehicles, hybrids, and bicycles. It will be interesting to get the travel report for this season’s holiday traveling. New records?
