We’ve been hearing about El Niño, the band of warm Pacific water that can affect weather patterns – but what of the sibling, La Niña? NewScientist (paywall) relays a warning for Australia:
Queensland could face devastating floods rivalling those seen in 2010-11 in just a year’s time, as the effects of climate change and an impending La Niña weather event combine.
La Niña brings warm water to the ocean around Queensland, and with it comes rain. Fresh research now shows that the effects of climate change made the flood-causing rains three times more likely that year. …
Queensland might not have to wait to get a taste of this future. The world is in the grip of one of the strongest El Niños on record. And extreme El Niños usually flip within a year to become their opposites, La Niñas – which are then often extreme themselves.
“I would predict an extreme La Niña developing by next year this time,” says [Wenju] Cai [of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation in Canberra, Australia]. “It is highly likely that January 2017 could see floods similar to those in 2011.”
[Caroline] Ummenhofer [of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts] says that predicting La Niña is difficult, but agrees it’s a worrying possibility that one might happen next year and bring a repeat of the devastating floods.
La Niña is, according to the Wikipedia article,
During a period of La Niña, the sea surface temperature across the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean will be lower than normal by 3–5 °C.
According to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, rainfall was a little slow in 2014:
Queensland experienced its equal-third-warmest year on record in 2014, with below-average rainfall recorded across the southeast, southwest and parts of the northern interior of the State.
Downpours are rarely usful, however. Just for fun, here’s a map Australian rainfall:
