While the American legislature attempts to stop the Iran nuclear deal, it’s worthwhile to see how the deal, if not stopped, affects the Mideast region. Ali Mamouri at AL Monitor gives a summary :
Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir traveled to the United States on July 17 to meet with US President Barack Obama to express Saudi Arabia’s concerns. Moreover, Saudi newspapers, such as al-Watan, al-Madina and al-Sharq al-Awsat, said the deal poses a great challenge to Saudi Arabia, which prompted members of the Saudi Consultative Assembly to call for development of “a nuclear program similar to that of Iran.” …
According to statements by Saudi officials, the nuclear deal will enable Iran to further support Saudi Arabia’s regional opponents in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq, and will strengthen the Iranian regime. Therefore, they said, the existing conflict in the region will extend and grow deeper, leading to additional wars and fighting.
Clearly Iran’s largest rival, Saudi Arabia, has little trust of Iran. Iran’s view of the situation?
Following up on Iran’s regional policy, there appear to be different visions within the country. The first is that of the reformist current, led by Expediency Council Chairman Hashemi Rafsanjani, who believes there is a need for coordination and dialogue with Saudi Arabia to resolve regional crises. Rafsanjani has repeatedly called for improved communication with Saudi Arabia, and he supports a regional agreement between the countries.
The second vision is that of the radical current, which believes Iran has succeeded in its regional policy against the Saudi axis, and that there is no need for coordination with Saudi Arabia in any regional issue in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Bahrain. This vision stems from the feeling that “Iran is not an important country in the region, but rather the only important country in the region,” an Iranian official who refused to reveal his name told former United Nations special envoy to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi in 2013.
Charmingly aggressive. Recall that Iran is Shi’ite, while Saudi Arabia is lead by Wahhabis, which is a strict form of Sunni Islam, so mutual distaste appears to be inevitable. Mamouri concludes:
Accordingly, there is an urgent need to find a balance of power and understanding between the regional players, particularly Iran and Saudi Arabia. This should be the US administration’s second objective after the nuclear deal. It can now act as a mediator between Iran and Saudi Arabia to converge the views and produce a durable and stable balance in the region.
While the deal appears to be a good deal for the Western powers in that it reduces Iranian potential for achieving nuclear weapons, while permitting progress towards nuclear power, a key Iranian goal, clearly the Saudis worry that the Iranians may subvert the deal regardless, so that leaves a question for the current American Administration: How to reassure the Saudis of the impossibility for the Iranians to achieve the weapons? And they clearly state that the easing of sanctions may increase the conventional fighting in the region.
And by tying sanctions to the nuclear deal, the United States does hamstring itself in one way – reimposing sanctions for non-nuclear infringements may cause the Iranians to call off the deal, using Western hypocrisy as an excuse.
And what about other Mideast nations? Al Jazeera report Bahrain is unhappy:
Bahrain has announced the recalling of its ambassador to Tehran for consultations after what it said were repeated hostile Iranian statements. …
Sunni-ruled Bahrain, home to the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet, often accuses Shia Iran of seeking to subvert Bahrain.
Iran denies interfering in Bahrain, although it acknowledges it does support opposition groups seeking greater political and economic rights for Bahrain’s Shia community.
Bahraini state media reported on Saturday that the Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs (SCIA) “strongly denounced the repeated blatant Iranian interference in Bahrain’s internal affairs in order to shake up the kingdom’s stability and fan tension”.
All this post-deal.
