Sadly, earlier speculation concerning the end of the Yemen war was unsupported, as reported in AL Monitor by Bruce Reidel of the Brookings Institute:
Saudi Arabia’s 29-year-old defense minister, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has staked his and his country’s future on achieving some kind of clear-cut victory in the kingdom’s war in Yemen. UN talks that leave Sanaa under the control of what the Saudis claim is an illegal Iranian-backed rebel regime are clearly not a decisive victory for the royals. Bin Salman needs much more.
Instead, after weeks of air attacks on the Zaydi Shiite Houthi rebels and their allies, the prince’s war looks like a stalemate. The immense damage done to Yemen’s weak infrastructure has created considerable bad blood between Yemenis and their rich Gulf neighbors that will poison relations for years. Yemenis always resented their rich brothers; now many will want revenge. Even worse for Riyadh, Iran is scoring a victory on its Gulf rival without any cost to Tehran and with only limited Iranian assistance to the Zaydis.
Mr. Reidel goes on to note the Deputy Royal Prince in charge of the war has no military experience; in sum, a new king who reorganized the hierarchy and started a war with a poor selection of military leader. Signs of an inexperienced leadership team?
An earlier report by Madawi Al-Rasheed, also in AL Monitor, suggests that the royals need complete victory:
King Salman ibn Abdul-Aziz Al Saud and his son Mohammed cannot afford to achieve anything less than total victory. The king chose to inaugurate his reign with an aggressive foreign policy, to mark this new era as distinct from the soft power and charm offensives of the late King Abdullah. With the new king, a serious reversal of policy and outright military intervention became the hallmarks of his new reign.
Saudi audiences need to be assured that the new king is the master of Riyadh’s security and the kingdom’s future. His predatory son Mohammed needs to establish his credentials as soon as possible not only as deputy crown prince but also as minister of defense. There seems to be urgency in this matter, given Salman’s advanced age. Surely the young prince wants to be well established before his father dies.
So, the Saudis will be remembered for a few generations for air strikes on Yemen, and revenge will no doubt be sought. Did they have a good reason? Bruce Reidel, in a different article for AL Monitor, expanded on this last year:
It’s the House of Saud’s worse nightmare come true. The stunning success of the Zaydi Houthi rebellion in Yemen places a Shiite group with connections to Iran on the soft underbelly of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, erasing years of Saudi efforts to stabilize Yemen and keep it in the Saudi orbit.
The Zaydi Houthi movement, which calls itself Ansar Allah, took control of the capital, Sanaa, in September and now has taken control of the main northern port of the country at Hodeida. The Houthis have expanded far beyond their traditional stronghold in the north of Yemen around Saada near the Saudi border to take control of much of northern Yemen. They are dictating who and what they will accept in the nominal government of Yemen. They rejected President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi’s first choice for a new prime minister, and rejected his requests that they evacuate Sanaa and return to their bases in the north. …
Whatever the extent of Iranian aid to the Houthis, Riyadh believes it is extensive and critical to their success. A senior Saudi prince recently told me that the kingdom is now surrounded by Iranian proxies. He said Iran’s assets control four Arab capitals: Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut and Sanaa. The Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat this month editorialized that “Iran is encircling Saudi Arabia.”
So Saudi nervousness is somewhat understandable.
