A Facebook correspondent, in response to a post concerning an increase in citizens identifying as political independents, requests
Now show a chart that shows people who actually vote.
This leads to this interesting article discussing precisely this subject, also published by the Pew Research Center.
Among Republicans interviewed in October, 17% did not identify as Republicans in November. Among Democrats interviewed in October, 10% no longer identified as Democrats. Of those who declined to identify with a party in October, 18% told us they were either Democrats or Republicans when we interviewed them in November. Overall, 15% of voters gave a different answer in November than they did in October.
We also see party affiliation changing in understandable ways over time, in response to major events and political circumstances. For example, the percentage of registered voters identifying as Republican dropped from 33% to 28% between 2004 and 2007 during a period in which disapproval of President George W. Bush’s job performance was rising and opinions about the GOP were becoming increasingly negative.
Similarly, the percentage of American voters identifying as Democrats dropped from 38% in 2008 – a high point not seen since the 1980s – to 34% in 2011, after their large losses in the 2010 congressional elections.
The Roper Center provides a chart of the information for the 2012 Presidential Election, entitled “How Groups Voted,” which I take to mean exit polls. I’ve extracted this outtake:
|
2012
|
Group
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PARTY
|
Democratic
|
38
|
92
|
7
|
|
Republican
|
32
|
6
|
93
|
|
|
Independent
|
29
|
45
|
50
|
|
For 2008, Roper provides this information:
|
2008
|
Group
|
Obama
|
McCain
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PARTY
|
Democrat
|
39
|
89
|
10
|
|
Republican
|
32
|
9
|
93
|
|
|
Independent
|
29
|
52
|
44
|
|
In 2004, Roper provides this information:
|
2004
|
Group
|
Kerry
|
Bush
|
Nader
|
Other
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PARTY
|
Democrat
|
37
|
89
|
11
|
*
|
*
|
|
Republican
|
37
|
6
|
93
|
*
|
*
|
|
|
Independent
|
26
|
50
|
48
|
1
|
2
|
|
For 2000, Roper provides this information:
|
2000
|
Group
|
Gore
|
Bush
|
Buchanan
|
Nader
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PARTY
|
Democrat
|
39
|
87
|
11
|
1
|
2
|
|
Republican
|
35
|
8
|
91
|
*
|
1
|
|
|
Independent
|
26
|
46
|
48
|
1
|
6
|
|
From these few data points it appears the Republicans are suffering as both the Democrats and the Independents gain at their expense. Of course, as the Pew report points out, loyalties can be variable, depending on the success of the Party, fidelity (or lack thereof) to espoused principles, and even the American belief that the grass is always greener with someone else in charge. Still, given the aging demographic of the GOP, this trend is not surprising. The interesting part will be the adjustments the GOP will make in order to stay viable as a national force. Some have suggested the redrawing of voting districts is one of their early strategies; this can be of limited effectiveness since it’s easily detectable and can be taken to court, as in this Texas example.
