First, let me just say that I’m delighted to see World Press Review continuing. I was a long time subscriber until the print edition was stopped many years ago; I had been aware the editor took it digital, but did not keep up with it. Now operating as WorldPress.org, it continues to reprint interesting articles from anywhere in the world.
This January article by Andrew Topf suggests the Russian government retains its imperial ambitions:
We are already seeing this to be the case. As Oilprice.com reported on Tuesday, Putin is set to absorb South Ossetia—Georgia’s breakaway republic that declared itself independent in 1990. Under an agreement “intended to legalize South Ossetia’s integration with Russia,” Russia would invest 2.8 million rubles (US$50 million) to “fund the socio-economic development of South Ossetia,” according to Agenda.ge, a Tbilisi-based news site. The situation is analogous to Crimea because, like Crimea, South Ossetia contains a significant Russian-speaking population with ties to the Motherland.
When the current oil price fall started, I muttered to my wife that this was the start of an unannounced war on Russia.
(Source: Macrotrends)
Russia’s primary export is oil, and dropping the price 50% really put the hurt on them. She didn’t necessarily agree with my conspiracy theory. But it looks like Russia is maneuvering in this cool war:
The current move on South Ossetia is a way for Russia to assert its energy independence in the face of Western sanctions and low oil prices. It comes as Russia has announced plans to divert all of its natural gas crossing Ukraine to a route via Turkey. As Bloomberg reported last week, Gazprom will send 63 billion cubic meters through a proposed link under the Black Sea to Turkey—after the earlier South Stream pipeline, a $45-billion project that would have crossed Bulgaria, was scrapped by Russia amid opposition from the European Union. By sending the gas to Turkey and on to Europe via Greece, Gazprom is in effect sending Europe an ultimatum: Build pipelines to European markets, or we will sell the gas to other customers.
The proposed land grab in South Ossetia, combined with the snub to Europe by shifting its gas to Turkey and bypassing Ukraine, is a classic Putin power play. “Russia is preparing to absorb a province of neighboring Georgia, and delivering an ultimatum to Europe that it could lose much of the Russian gas on which it relies,” Steve LeVine wrote in Quartz. “Putin has argued that the West is simply intent on ousting him and weakening Russia. … Faced with these perceived attempts to undercut him and his country, Putin suggests that he has no choice but to pull around the wagons and stick it out. This could go on a long time.”
The drop in oil prices has been caused partly by the Saudis, which then clouds the issue: just who’s under attack? Or is it necessary to wonder: perhaps the the US and Saudi Arabia have multiple targets: Russia, Venezuela, and Iran.
