Too Many Pies

Without reference to what other folks have to say when it comes to Afghanistan – I’m too busy to go read them – it occurs to me to observe that the media does tend to prefer to observe the moss on the trees rather than the forest. Not exclusively, of course, but what I’m leading up to is this:

Within the greater picture of American foreign relations, what does the Afghanistan withdrawal do for us?

Let’s break it down.

• How important is Afghanistan? Despite the accurate old aphorism that Afghanistan is the graveyard of empires, it’s not a strategic plum. It has mineral resources, but nothing exclusive or overly important. The mountains are not as important as mountains used to be, now that we have air power. It’s another country, particularly backward from the American point of view, which shed the Western values overcoat which we attempted to dress it in.
• Is Afghanistan the home of terrorist organizations? Not for the last twenty years, as liberal Jonathan Rauch observed. The particular goal of neutering the Taliban and al Quaeda in Afghanistan has been robustly accomplished.
• But doesn’t the previous point no longer apply with our withdrawal? Well, that’s an interesting question that can only be answered by the passage of time. But consider the emergence of ISIS-K, the group responsible for the terror bombing that killed thirteen Americans and 160 (last I heard) Afghans. From what I’m reading, ISIS-K has emerged because there’s a species of Afghanistan zealot who believes the Taliban is too soft, too weak. Think about that, that being said about the organization which fought and essentially won a twenty year war with America (although it was a close thing), rooked President Trump, and thoroughly fooled American intelligence agencies. And add in the soft reports that the Taliban is trying to reassure its newly “conquered” citizens that, no, widespread violence will not be spread by the Taliban, or that the Taliban is attempting to reassure foreign investment sources that various citizens’ rights will be guaranteed. They’re desperate for cash to run the country. While we’ll never like the Taliban, we may find that a Taliban desperate to retain authority and international respect will be willing to suppress terrorist organizations trying to make a home in the hinterlands – especially if it’s destroy or be destroyed.
• So was, and should, Afghanistan be a top concern in American foreign relations? In my amateurish and simple estimation, no, except because we were an occupying foreign force. Without that, the only reason they might crack the top 100 is because they’re a neighbor to Iran.
• So as the withdrawal winds down, how does leaving Afghanistan advantage us? Now we can concentrate on more important national adversaries, such as #1 China and #2 Russia. This is extremely important. Yes, we employ thousands of diplomats and support personnel, so you wouldn’t think that it matters if we were in Afghanistan, but the fact is that the President often lends a hand to the State Dept for prestige reasons, and Afghanistan sucking down resources tends to distract the President – regardless of their name. And then there’s the hits on prestige, leaks of military technology, and the whole concept of soft power. We’re a big, rich country, but China is 3-4 times larger and hungry. By closing down the Afghanistan operation, we can better focus on the much harder problems of China and Russia.

Don’t get distracted by the insta-opinions of the partisan pundit core on either side. If one must read them, don’t let personal preference win the day, but rather prefer those pundits who express opinions out of sync with their side. Like Rauch, above.

Me? Patience and more patience. Yes, we have thirteen dead. It’s a tragedy. But it could have been far, far worse. If we had decided to stick around, we would have lost more than thirteen over the following months and years.

I’m looking to see most or all the Americans get out, and as many Afghans who have helped us also get out. With no more dead. If that happens, Biden wins the moral victory and possibly the messaging victory. If the Taliban make a determined effort to keep terrorist organizations out of Afghanistan, then Biden wins hands down.

But there’s still a long ways to go.