While looking over Daniel Byman’s overview of Iran on Lawfare in light of the protests currently going on in various Iranian cities, I ran across this thought-provoking passage:
In addition to uncertainty at the top, Iran’s economy remains vulnerable. The latest protests began over economic issues before turning political. The economy was shrinking before the lifting of sanctions, but sanctions relief—including additional export opportunities and the unfreezing of assets—have improved the economic situation, with the growth rate at roughly 7 percent in recent years and inflation stabilizing. However, Iran’s economy is plagued with corruption, and mismanagement is rife. The IRGC and various religious foundations control much of the economy, stifling competition and making reform far more difficult. Private investment remains skittish, especially outside the energy sector. The low price of oil makes these structural problems all the more painful.
In addition to these problems, popular expectations of prosperity are higher than they have been for many years. The lifting of sanctions fostered hope that incomes would rise and economic problems would diminish—the regime now has less ability to blame the United States or other enemies for its problems. Protests are a fact of life in Iran—few are massive, sustained, or tied to a broader political cause, but all show at least some level of dissatisfaction with the regime. Indeed, Hassan Rouhani’s election and those of his political allies was in part because of his promises to improve Iran’s economy due to sanctions relief.
And that made me think. For all the public screaming from both sides’ hardliners about the evils of interfacing with the enemies (the Axis of Evil, the Great Satan), I didn’t see anyone ever talk about how the sanctions relief might actually work against the Iranians – or how President Obama and his team may have truly taken President Rouhani, Supreme Leader Khamenei, and their team for all they got. How so?
With the utmost gravitas, which may have obscured his true intentions, Obama’s team removed the best excuse the Iranian leadership had for an economy inadequate to the needs of the Iranian citizenry. Once that excuse was removed and the inadequacy continued, the citizens can see more clearly where the problems may clearly lie within Iran.
And their conclusion appears to be that it lies with the leadership, at least so far.
They may go farther and blame the very structure of the Islamic Republic of Iran. For the leadership of Iran, the position of Supreme Leader of all he holds sway over – and that’s a lot – constitutes permanent power and privilege for those he favors. For those who fear anything from simple discomfort to lack of power, that’s gotta be comforting, unless you’re not favored by the Supreme Leader and his underlings. And during moments of transition, when the Supreme Leader is replaced?
Those are very shaky moments.
OK, all that said, do I really believe that President Obama and his team were that subtle in their strategizing? Maybe so. Although then we might even consider that notorious letter from the United States Senators to Iran, warning that the JCPOA would be abrogated as soon as a Republican President took office, to simply be part of a strategy put together by Obama in conjunction with the GOP, and, given the behavior of the GOP over the last year or so, I just can’t believe.
The answer to whether or not Obama’s goal was the upsetting of Iran’s government by ripping away a veil may rest somewhere in the locked files of the United States.
But the fact remains that by stripping away the biggest excuse the Iranian leadership had for its inadequate economy, the United States may have done more damage to Iran than the straightforward sanctions approach.
Hopefully, Trump and his team, as laughable as they mostly seem to be, can find a way to take advantage of the protests. Although, honestly, I’m at a bit of a loss as to a desirable outcome. Democracy? Are they ready for that? Monarchy? Because that worked so well last time?
Time will tell.
Meanwhile, authorities in Iran claim the protests are over, according to CNN:
The head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said Wednesday that a string of anti-government protests were over after six days of unrest.
In comments to the semiofficial Fars news agency, Mohammad Ali Jafari said that only 15,000 people had turned out at the height of the rallies and that the main “troublemakers” have been arrested. CNN has not been able to verify the claim on the amount of protesters.
“Today, we can say it is the end of ‘sedition 1396,’ ” Jafari said, using the year in the Iranian calendar.
“With the help of God, their defeat is definite,” he said.
Even if it’s true, they did happen. That will shake up the leadership a bit. Who knows, they may even make an effort to fix things.
