{"id":704,"date":"2015-04-16T23:48:56","date_gmt":"2015-04-17T04:48:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/?p=704"},"modified":"2015-04-16T23:48:56","modified_gmt":"2015-04-17T04:48:56","slug":"race-2016-marco-rubio-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2015\/04\/16\/race-2016-marco-rubio-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Race 2016: Marco Rubio"},"content":{"rendered":"

Following his initial announcement<\/a>, the New York Times suggests his chances are low due to competing with fellow Floridian Jeb Bush for the same votes and operatives<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\n

Mr. Bush\u2019s pre-emptive bid to build elite support has denied Mr. Rubio the opportunity to consolidate the center-right wing of the party. Perhaps this wouldn\u2019t be a big problem if Mr. Rubio were a favorite of the conservatives skeptical of Mr. Bush\u2019s candidacy, but the field is full of candidates who are equally good or better fits for many conservative voters.<\/p>\n

Scott Walker, who took on unions and won in Wisconsin, is a conservative hero. Ted Cruz is a favorite of the Tea Party. Mike Huckabee is a favorite of evangelical Christians. Then there is a long list of other conservative candidates \u2014 like Ben Carson, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry and Bobby Jindal \u2014 who might compete for votes.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Harry Enten at the venerable FiveThirtyEight blog<\/a> disagrees, despite admitting Rubio’s starting off with some low numbers:<\/p>\n

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio\u2019s campaign, which officially kicks off Monday, has so far attracted paltry support from Republican voters, according to polls in Iowa<\/a> and New Hampshire<\/a>, as well as nationally<\/a>. He\u2019s down near Chris Christie! Yet, when we talk about him in the FiveThirtyEight office<\/a>, we usually put Rubio in the top tier, in front of everyone except Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, the two candidates at the top of the polls.<\/p>\n

Why? Rubio is both electable and conservative<\/a>, and in optimal proportions<\/a>. He\u2019s in a position<\/a> to satisfy the GOP establishment, tea party-aligned voters and social conservatives. In fact, Rubio\u2019s argument for the GOP nomination looks a lot like Walker\u2019s, and Rubio is more of a direct threat to the Wisconsin governor than he is to fellow Floridian Bush.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

And he has this lovely chart:<\/p>\n

\"enten-datalab-rubio-2\"<\/p>\n

I think the addition of a few historical figures really helps to understand where the current batch lives.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Following his initial announcement, the New York Times suggests his chances are low due to competing with fellow Floridian Jeb Bush for the same votes and operatives: Mr. Bush\u2019s pre-emptive bid to build elite support has denied Mr. Rubio the opportunity to consolidate the center-right wing of the party. Perhaps \u2026 Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-704","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/704","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=704"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/704\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":707,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/704\/revisions\/707"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=704"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=704"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=704"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}